So you think the iPad is revolutionary? Wake up. It's 2020 and a new King reigns. Today, the iPad is fondly remembered as nothing but a dumb, miniaturized version of the flat-screen TV. That, at least, is the forward-looking view of some people in certain quarters of the electronics and investment community who believe the industry has some incredible applications that will debut over the next five to 10 years.
I tend to agree. The iPad and the iPhone that propelled Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) to the top of the consumer electronics industry and made it the world's most valued publicly traded company were years in the making. It may come as a surprise to many, but the idea for the iPad first started making the rounds at Apple early in the beginning of the last decade. As I noted in a previous blog, the next big thing from Apple will eclipse whatever you're seeing today. If the company doesn't deliver on that promise, its flame will die out slowly and another pioneering company will take its place. (See: Apple's Next Big Thing Will Be Huge.)
In a garage somewhere and in the minds of the next-generations of investors, new products and applications for the electronics industry are germinating. Many of these have the potential to spin off a new set of super companies, while others will revitalize older enterprises. Remember, enterprises like Facebook and even Google were unknown a mere 10 or 15 years ago, and even Apple was considered electronics roadkill late in the 90s. Perhaps companies like Acer, HP, IBM, Motorola Mobility, Nokia, RIM, and Samsung will get their second wind by coming out with the next set of products that would define the next generation of consumers. It's also possible Apple will continue to lead the way into the next decade.
While we aren't sure which companies will deliver on that promise, I am confident the next decade won't be defined by products like the smartphone and the tablet PC -- both of which are great devices but in reality are simply replacing or adding peripherally to functionalities present in an older product, the PC. Consumers will demand more over the next decade, but who can predict what the landscape will look like five or 10 years from now? Do you know what businesses are cooking up, or do you have ideas about the type of products you expect companies to introduce, and how the electronics supply chain will respond?
If you do, we want to hear from you. EBN has partnered with research firm Frost & Sullivan to get answers to some of these questions. In a survey we'll be fielding over the next few weeks, we will be asking the following core questions and will share our findings with readers:
What will the electronics industry landscape look like in 2020 and beyond?
What new technologies and megatrends (such as innovating to zero, smart factories) will affect consumer choice and growth strategies?
How does that affect productivity and manufacturing techniques within a company?
What are the evolving roles of the value chain partners?
What new best-practices must companies cultivate in order to succeed post 2020?
Participants will receive a summary of the results. If you would like to participate, please start the survey.
I'm having a hard time imagining what the next device will be, so it's a good thing I am not in the product design business. I just hope as much attention is paid to areas such as medical as to consumer. Don't get me wrong--I am a huge fan of movies and music and my PC has made my life easier all around. But medical care is still out of the reach of many people that can afford a cell phone.
Barb, I sure wish I knew what other wow product the industry might bring to market. In some ways, though, this is not so hard to figure out. If you consider any of the breakthrough products of the last 20 years, none has been really anything new. Most are just improvements on an already existing product. The smartphone, the tablet PC, wireless connectivity, digital music player, etc., all have previous iterations that performed the same functions in some ways or the other.
If I want to think of a future great seller, I would like at what we have today that's simply clunky and ask myself if it's possible to make them better, easier to use and improve portability. The same applies in the medical equipment market where miniaturization is being applied to many of the huge products in service today.
There are products in the market, for instance, that make it unnecessary for people to drive several days a week to a hospital for dialysis. It is possible to do it at home yourself! That is innovation built on an existing platform.
I wish I had an accurate crystal ball instead of the old foggy one our company uses. I imagine the future will bring major advances in health care as the percentage of older people increases. We will also see more in true home automation and smart appliances. We should all expect major advances in renewable energy, energy saving devices and automotive technology.
I would expect automotive to be the next big thing for electronics manufacturing. "Smart Cars" that drive themselves, monitor your email, and find music to your tastes, all while consuming little to no fossil fuels! Sounds to good to be true, but in reality isn't that far out of reach. And as Bolaji says below, its technology that is simply improving that which already exists.
By moving to the core of the industry and offerings services that keep the system humming, a group within the electronics market has rendered irrelevant the question of ownership and control of the supply chain.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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