It's only a $454 million market and represents but a small fraction of the sales Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) generates in its hardware operation. But Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) has won huge bragging rights in the online movie business by rapidly overtaking its much bigger rival to become the No. 1 player in the segment, according to a recent report from IHS.
Seemingly coming out of nowhere, Netflix raised its US online movie marketshare from less than 1 percent in 2010 to 44 percent last year, IHS said. The rapid rise in its share of the subscription video on demand (SVOD) market contributed to the whittling down of Apple's stake to 32.3 percent from approximately 61 percent in 2010. That share was as high as 71.5 percent in 2009, when Netflix was not even a player in the sector.
Netflix borrowed a page from the Apple playbook. As it maintained its focus on the video disc rental business, plummeting sales sent Netflix into a downward spiral. It had to adopt a new business model that moved in line with changing customer patterns and moved most of its services online. Much as Apple did in the middle of the last decade, Netflix leveraged its customer loyalty and instant name recognition in the video hardware rental business to the online operation. The shift from hardware rental to online service is almost complete, and IHS said Netflix sales may not grow quite as fast in the future.
"2011 marked a sea change in the online movies business that saw the balance of consumer spending shift from a DVD-like transactional model to more TV-like subscription approach," Dan Cryan, research director for digital media at IHS, said in a press release on the report. "The online movie business more than doubled in 2011 to reach $992 million and it is expected to double this year as well."
The competition is about to intensify. Companies like Wal-Mart are gaining rapidly on the two leaders. The marketshare of Wal-Mart's Vudu service, whose model is similar to the Netflix one, increased to 4.2 percent in 2011 from 0.5 percent in 2009 and could rise further in the coming years as customer adoption increases for the entire market. Cryan said some of the gains his firm expects for Vudu will come at the expense of Netflix, rather than Apple.
That's because the business model Apple is using with its iTunes service is quite different from the monthly subscription model favored by Netflix. Under Apple's system, consumers pay each time they download a movie, but they are allowed unlimited monthly access to an extensive range of offerings with the Netflix SVOD model. Cryan said Apple could benefit from rising hardware sales, including iPhones and iPads, which would also drive VOD consumption.
As IHS said in the release:
The stunning growth in SVOD revenue seen in 2011 is not likely to continue at the same rate in the future.
Netflix's customer transition is now complete. And while its effect will be felt into 2012, which will be the first full year of paid streaming, Netflix's U.S. digital customer base is likely to expand at a slower rate, in keeping with premium pay-TV channels. Consequently, IHS expects transactional VOD to experience stronger growth than SVOD after 2012 unless there is a significant market entry, such as a standalone HBO streaming subscription or a full-fledged pay-TV subscription service delivered over the open Internet.
Translation? Netflix should enjoy its No. 1 status while it can. Apple and the rest of the competitors aren't really that far behind.
I was surprised to read this because Netflix had so badly handled its transition and I pretty much wrote them off. Of all the companies to out-earn Apple, Netflix wasn't at the top of the list. But even with their rate hike, Netflix is still a bargain. I took toll of how I use these services, and new movies are definitely rental or on-demand, whereas if I am going to purchase a classic, I'll download from iTunes.
Nemos, The simple answer to your question is that the models are different and Apple's offering in this market isn't as robust as the Netflix option. Consider this: Netflix movies can be watched on the big TV screen and subscribers have the option of getting more than a single movie with one flat fee. In the case of Apple, the movies are often downloaded on other devices like the iPod, the iPad or the iPhone and then hooked up to the big screen. Too many processes, right? Plus, you pay for one movie at a time.
I think the battle will continue and other players will come in the market, then I am wondering what is the future for other segment as CableTV broadcasting movies for example. Heard for several provider movie providers by cable, revenues are really reducing...
I think it also helped Netflix that hardware vendors that make DVD players or video recording hardware like Tivo, advertise their ability to stream Netflix content to any TV.
But personally I don't watch that many movies (or other video for that matter) on my large screen TV. And I find that when I do my local Redbox kiosks are a convenient and cheap way to go. So I hope physical media doesn't become completely obsolete any time soon. Maybe the Redbox DVD kiosks will get replaced by kiosks stocked with USB thumb drives instead.
Netflix is probably gaining popularity in the US only. Outside US it is not offering anything and most people have not heard of it. However I think this is a good start to go global.
By moving to the core of the industry and offerings services that keep the system humming, a group within the electronics market has rendered irrelevant the question of ownership and control of the supply chain.
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Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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