The electronics market may still wring out a respectable finish to the year if rising consumer confidence in the United States translates into strong sales during the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday period.
A recent report from the Conference Board, an industry organization that monitors conditions in the US economy, says consumer confidence surged in October to its highest level since February 2008, boosted by a sense of steady improvements in the employment market. The industry body also says consumers feel better about their finances, and this belief is being reflected in their response to the Conference Board's survey.
"Consumers were considerably more positive in their assessment of current conditions, with improvements in the job market as the major driver," says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, in the statement cited above. "Consumers were modestly more upbeat about their financial situation and the short-term economic outlook, and appear to be in better spirits approaching the holiday season."
The Conference Board says consumers are "more optimistic" about the short-term outlook, while businesses also believe conditions are steadily improving. While consumer confidence remains well below the levels that demonstrate a high level of optimism, the improvement could do wonders for retailers and other segments of the economy in the November-December period. If sentiments remain as strong in November as they were in October, buyers could spend more during the holidays than many were expecting.
The Conference Board goes on to say:
Those claiming business conditions are "good" rose to 16.5 percent from 15.3 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” edged down to 33.1 percent from 33.8 percent. Consumers' appraisal of the labor market was also more positive. Those stating jobs are "plentiful" increased to 10.3 percent from 8.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined to 39.4 percent from 40.7 percent.
That's not the only piece of heartwarming news the industry has received in the last few days. The latest US employment data confirms why consumers are feeling a little more bullish about the economy. Earlier today, the Labor Department reported employers lifted payrolls in the non-farm sectors by 171,000 in October, leaving the unemployment number at 7.9 percent. The news cheered investors and helped to boost stocks in early trading on Friday.
"Our unemployment rate has dropped by more than two percentage points under President Obama. Unemployment Insurance claims are at a four-year low, Consumer sentiment is at a four-year high. We've added more than a half-million manufacturing jobs over the last 32 months. And we just posted the largest 12-month increase in housing permits since 1983," said Hilda Solis, Secretary of Labor, in a statement.
Electronics manufacturers will be heartened by the news. Higher consumer confidence typically translates into higher spending during the end-of-year holiday season, when consumer electronics makers can expect a mini-bonanza as shoppers snap up the latest gadgets for family and friends. If consumers spend more on gifts in November and December, the increased sales could help improve the expected performance of the entire electronics sector in 2012, and transform what many were expecting to be a dull close to the year.
Bolaji: Thanks for compiling these positives together--it definitely helps the outlook for Q4. Q3 news is still coming in and most of it is ugly. It's hard to be optimistic about Q4 but that's largely anecdotal at this point. These reports put some data behind reasons to feel upbeat. I much prefer optimism, personally and professionally.
With the coming of holiday period including Thanksgiving Day, Christmas and Chinese Spring Festival, more manufacturers launched new products, resulting in price cutting of prodcuts, despite consumer confidence upbeat, the industrial condition will still have some changement; just like Chinese eight-day holiday (the National Day and Mooncake Day), didn't largely promote the consumption market; in addition. the US presidental election result will also bring a influence to the market in the fourth quarter.
By moving to the core of the industry and offerings services that keep the system humming, a group within the electronics market has rendered irrelevant the question of ownership and control of the supply chain.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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