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Monumental Changes for Global Manufacturing

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tech4people
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Supply Network Guru
Re: Its time to Bring the Jobs Home.
tech4people   2/5/2013 9:54:11 AM
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Bolaji,

This sounds like a very exciting project!

I have a feeling the world is going to look very different Ten-Twenty years from today(remember that movie;where the Haves lived a life with High-Tech stuff all around them and the Have-nots lived in the Desert??)

Usually the easiest solution for Social Upheaval is War on a massive Scale.

Will we see the same one here?

Not sure.

I have a strong feeling that Rising Energy prices (for Crude Oil);will pay a big part in the equation(whether we have more automation or not).

 

Bolaji Ojo
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Blogger
Re: Its time to Bring the Jobs Home.
Bolaji Ojo   2/4/2013 1:04:52 PM
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Ashish, I'm working on a project on this subject. I have the same concerns as you but I'd prefer to see it as one more step in the evolutionary process. When we discuss evolution, people don't concern themselves much about the losers -- the species that became extinct. We are around now, aren't we? We are the descendants of the survivors! The same thing will happen in the workplace: winners will claim trophies. The thing to do is be prepared.

tech4people
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Supply Network Guru
Re: Its time to Bring the Jobs Home.
tech4people   2/4/2013 9:48:19 AM
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Bolaji,

Everything you are saying here,Fits right in with an Article I recently read from the New York Times-Called the rise of the Temp Economy.

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/the-rise-of-the-permanent-temp-economy/

 

The other issue that bothers and worries me immensely is one of Robotics.

Today we are increasingly seeing more and more Jobs get lost to automation Globally.

Its beyond Stunning,some of the advances taking place today.

Like this

http://singularityhub.com/2013/01/22/robot-serves-up-340-hamburgers-per-hour/

www.technologyreview.com/news/509296/small-factories-give-baxter-the-robot-a-cautious-once-over/

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57563618/are-robots-hurting-job-growth/

When even the Chinese are saying Robots are cheaper than Humans;what are we gonna do???


http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2012-12/06/content_15992180.htm

 

Not Good News all around;Is it?

I mean-Not everyone is flexible enough to get Good Quality,High Paying jobs in today's environment.

Honestly I don't have the perfect the Solution to these Questions.

Just worried.





Bolaji Ojo
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Re: Its time to Bring the Jobs Home.
Bolaji Ojo   1/31/2013 3:25:19 PM
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Ashish, This is not a disaster. In fact, I see some positives in it so long as we are proactive in our response. Companies are being run by professional managers with -- in most cases -- hardly any sense of responsibility to employees beyond the immediate paychecks or to the society at large beyond lip service over environmental obligations, etc. Most executives want to "maximize shareholder value," which is jargon for the most profit and highest sales.

If it is a sole proprietor or family owned business, there's a bigger attachment to loyal, trusted and long-serving employees. Such owners often would rather settle for smaller profits on an interim basis than wield the cutting axe immediately there's a slowdown. They may also keep a less profitable shop because it's part of the fabric of the community. That is hard to maintain with professional managers.

In other words, what you are asking for cannot be legislated. Sorry.

How should people respond? I suggest employees take greater responsibility for their career, understand that they have "permanent interests" but that there are no "permanent" jobs. Parents, therefore, have to take greater interest in their children's career choices and also help them select professions that offer them greater employment diversity.

Further, I think we may as well embrace the outsourced culture. Most of the jobs that will be created in future will not require being attached to an employer. We'll have an environment of "skills for sale". That's fine with me. So long as I know that's what I need to do to take care of my family.

 

tech4people
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Supply Network Guru
Re: Its time to Bring the Jobs Home.
tech4people   1/31/2013 11:39:41 AM
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Bolaji,

This is not exactly very comforting news for the vast majority of Kids Unemployed in the US today.

What will it take to change the will of thes executives?How about Extra Fines for not hiring within the US?

Thanks

Ashish.

Bolaji Ojo
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Blogger
Re: Its time to Bring the Jobs Home.
Bolaji Ojo   1/31/2013 11:10:49 AM
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Ashish, Let me put on the analyst's cap to answer your question. Big item (volume) manufacturing won't return to the US immediately and perhaps not at all unless a major catalyst (China implosion, geo-political disturbance, major natural disaster or war) sparks a resurgence in US manufacturing. A manufacturing shift requires many factors to support it, the foundation of which is the supply chain but the most important of which is the "will" of executives to make the move.

That "will" is sorely lacking currently. As you said in a previous post, the labor force is available.

But it's not only the location of work that is changing. The nature of employment is too and this is impacting manufacturing. Employers would rather use contract workers (whether in the US or overseas) than have thousands on the payroll. The payoff for companies is they don't have to pay benefits and can adjust expenses as necessary -- easy lay offs, easy hire, right?

In this context, the idea of having huge manufacturing in the US is therefore not being impacted by China alone but by our intense focus on reducing costs, maximizing profits, etc. Will manufacturing return the way it used to be? I doubt it.

tech4people
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Supply Network Guru
Re: Its time to Bring the Jobs Home.
tech4people   1/31/2013 9:53:27 AM
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Bolaji,

Many Thanks for your awesome Insight!

But You still have'nt answered what I was asking clearly(maybe I was rephrasing my Question wrongly);So let me re-phrase it again.

"When Do you See Big Ticket Manufacturing Jobs returning to the US?"

Or for that matter;

"When Do you see more manufacturing Jobs Generated in US than in China(Annually)"?

 

 

 

tech4people
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Supply Network Guru
re:
tech4people   1/31/2013 9:19:53 AM

Prabhakar,

 

If you read this article from the New York Times;You realize that American Citizens have NO CHOICE.

 http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/the-rise-of-the-permanent-temp-economy/

 

Selected Quotes from the Article-

 "

A quarter of jobs in America pay below the federal poverty line for a family of four ($23,050). Not only are many jobs low-wage, they are also temporary and insecure. Over the last three years, the temp industry added more jobs in the United States than any other, according to the American Staffing Association, the trade group representing temp recruitment agencies, outsourcing specialists and the like.

American employers have generally taken the low road: lowering wages and cutting benefits, converting permanent employees into part-time and contingent workers, busting unions and subcontracting and outsourcing jobs. 

"

They have to take whatever the market offers them(as is becoming increasingly evident from all the Jobs Data).

America does'nt have Half the Safety Net(which a Bankrupt Europe provides) nor do most Americans have any Savings leftover for a rainy Day.

On the contrary they are all tied up in immense Debt.

Check this article out from FICO to get an idea of the kind of insurmountable Debt Burden;America's students are under today(its beyond Stunning).

 http://www.scribd.com/doc/122817403/FICO-Student-Loans

 

Once again I will retierate;Americans have no choice but to take whatever is offered to them;even if it means that leads to more Blue Collar Jobs.

As for the Immigrants(whether they be Chinese,Indian or Mexican);most of them are going to be dissapointed in America as  American citizens start competing for the same jobs which were previously leftover for them.

 

 

Bolaji Ojo
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Blogger
Re: Its time to Bring the Jobs Home.
Bolaji Ojo   1/31/2013 8:21:14 AM
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Ashish, Researchers have confirmed that the labor differential between high-cost countries and low-cost nations has been shrinking and may not be high enough to be the leading factor for outsourcing manufacturing to China. Other factors are involved, including some that I've pointed out in previous blogs. Some of the conditions under which products are made in China (workers' hostels, for instance) would never be allowed in the United States.

As some of these differences disappear under the close monitoring of labor activists and human rights observers, many companies will be reconsidering their outsourcing strategies and may begin shifting production back and closer to end customers. The labor pool you referenced will be useful at that point. I don't expect a complete shift away from China but the move is inevitable.

prabhakar_deosthali
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Supply Network Guru
re:
prabhakar_deosthali   1/31/2013 6:48:18 AM
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With the invasion of first by the Japanese and then the Chinese into the US manufacturing sector a whole US generation has now grown with first with Made-in_japan and then  made-in-China products.

Is this new US generation geared up to grab those blue collar jobs again or will the migrant people from China, India will grab these job opportunities in US is the question.

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