I've used both the iOS and the Android OS, and I have to say I disagree that Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) is repeating its mistakes, and here is why:
The software market, current and past, for the Mac and PC is very different compared to the app market for smartphones. There were very few options for software for the original Mac, and Apple made it difficult to port over games, one of the reasons the PC became so popular. The smartphone market however, is a centralized market where anyone can write and upload software to a hub.
Unlike with the computing market, there are no limits to the types of tools that can be found on the Apple App Store. Currently there are more than 350,000 different apps available, and all of them have undergone quality assurance (QA) testing, something open-source app stores are lacking. It's hard to argue developers aren't willing or able to develop for the iOS when the numbers are this high.
Speaking of the QA for the app marketplace: The Android app market is suffering because of its open-source nature; anyone can develop on it, leading to a wide variety of bad software available for download.
The open-source nature of the Android is also the source of its lag issues. Apple has gotten around lag because it controls the entire manufacturing process and has even bought out some of its suppliers. As Apple controls the system from the ground up, there is no bloating in the software. Android is the exact opposite; its OS becomes bloated in order to run on a variety of different hardware configurations. Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) acknowledges its open-source problem and has made Honeycomb, a.k.a Android 3.0, closed-source.
Now it's true Apple has lost some market share due to its closed nature, but I would suggest that it's lost more market share due to AT&T’s inability to create a stable infrastructure, the main complaint of iPhone customers. Many deliberately waited for Verizon to take up some of the load.
Additionally, the target market for smartphones is vastly different than the target market for the early computers. Old, young, tech savvy or not, there is a huge market for those who just want a plug-and-play system with no lag, and don't care if they can develop for it or not.
When the iPad first came out, I had a few problems with it. For example, it doesn't support Flash, something Android does support. Apple has addressed this issue by successfully arguing for the implementation of HTML5, a popular, and some would argue better, alternative. As more sites port over to HTML5, and it becomes a standard, Flash will become a relic.
In terms of market share, the OS that will dominate the market is the OS that is licensed to the majority of products; so, like Windows, Android will take on a greater market share over time. But this doesn't mean Apple will slip down to less than 10 percent of the market -- it just means there is still room for competition. And if you don't think it can compete 10 years into the future, remember the iPod came out 10 years ago, and it's still in the No. 1 position for PMP/MP3 market share for the US.
I am making the assumption that Apple will not rest on its laurels. If Apple fails to continue to lead the market, then it's possible that 10 years in the future the firm will fall by the wayside, but it's shown no indication it's ready to give up the game.