Nintendo of America Inc. is in a big gaming slump, with none of the best selling games for 2011 coming close to the 15 million to 25 million units previous bestsellers have sold. This slump is making the handheld market look bleak, but if Nintendo can push out a best seller within the next year Semico Research Corp. believes it will maintain a significant portion of the market share.
On the other hand, Nintendo is facing a lot of pressure to start porting its games to the iPhone. If it gives into pressure, then its hardware sales might as well be finished. And while content is still king, it's not the full story. How has the hardware side been fairing?
Japanese hardware sales are usually a pretty good indication of what is going on in the market, though recent numbers have been affected by the March earthquake; sales are down and slightly off from usual.
Here are some shipment numbers for August 8, compared to August 1, from Joystick.
PSP: 35,619 -- down 1,040 (2.84%)
PS3: 18,338 -- down 2,366 (11.43%)
Wii: 17,004 -- down 1,228 (6.74%)
DSi LL: 4,176 -- down 1,091 (20.71%)
3DS: 4,132 -- down 12,283 (74.83%)
DSi: 3,900 -- down 725 (15.68%)
Xbox 360: 1,406 -- down 210 (13.00%)
PS2: 1,529 -- down 65 (4.08%)
DS Lite: 102 -- down 36 (26.09%)
PSP Go: 0 -- down 7 (100.00%)
The main thing to take away from that list is everything is down. PSP is doing great in Japan, a more recent trend, with almost all PSP sales now shipping there. The DS line in total is 12,310 units, about a third of the PSP shipments. The recent release of the 3DS has been a complete letdown for Nintendo, partly because the earthquake happened so close to its release date, and partly because it has too high a price point and too few games. When this changes, these numbers should bump up, something Nintendo is counting on as it continues to slash the 3DS price.
So, the complete story is: Don’t give up on Nintendo yet. Semico’s forecast leans to the more optimistic outcome for handheld gaming, because Nintendo has a history of turning things around after almost everyone has given up on it.
But we need to keep in mind two caveats:
If Nintendo lets smartphones dictate the game release lineup, then in a few years Nintendo will be at current PSP numbers worldwide, with the decline continuing thereafter.
If Nintendo ports its games to smartphones, then the decline is going to happen even sooner.
@jbond, i agree with most of your comment. The difference in my opinion is that even though smartphone can become one-stop-for-all consumer devices, the capability will be limited. I can think of an example for gaming. Most of the people have PC and the hardware capability of PC is more than that of smartphone still people do not get that kick of playing on PC as they do get on dedicated gaming console/platform.
The fact is that hand held electronic games are a fad in decline. Console games are next to fall out of vogue, although a bit slower.
The winner would be some hacker who creates a means to play the existing games on a smartphone. Either hardware or software, enabling existing games to be played on a smartphone, or anywhere, for that matter, would run around the copyright rules by repurposing legally purchased products, thus, no infringement.
This may be "the next big thing" if anyone is able to pull it off. IT would also signal the fast end for the game hardware makers. Oh Well, it was a fad that has had it's day.
It's interesting to see that PS2 and PS3 did not dip that much as compared to other video game models. Considering the recent massive data breach at Sony, I would have expected the company to lose a lot of customer confidence.
Good to see that the part 2 followed immediately. This clearly illustrate the smart phone are not just damaging the portable game devices but also the actual game console market. May be the gaming industry needs something fresh to attract more users.
Smartphones are having a big effect on the future of handheld gaming. The proportion of games play on phones increases, people playing games on their mobile phones also own a DS or PSP which they no longer use.
I think it’s a matter of time before smartphones totally kill the handheld market. As the phones are allowing better gaming, more people are purchasing the games on their smartphone to kill time. Generally speaking, other than younger kids who wants to carry around multiple devices? If your smartphone can do everything, there is no need for other devices. There will continue to be a market for full-size devices at home as long as the prices don't sky rocket, but I think the smartphones are looking for a hammer to put the final nails in the coffin for handheld gaming devices.
Barbara, you are right. Now a day’s most of the peoples prefer gaming apps in smart phones rather than physical gaming devices. Only kids or teenagers prefer gaming consoles and such dedicated devices. I think this trend may continue further because many new gaming apps are developing by many companies.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.