It may be tempting to say that the current shift in user trends for consumer devices is limited to a generational shift, but in reality, it's affecting our grandparents and parents as well as our children.
The shift is crossing platforms from gamers to casual users and business clients, and it's changing the types of services we purchase for our homes and how we assign value to products.
This is the shift away from the computing segment to the consumer segment. As a society we are leaving our desktops and notebooks behind and moving to smartphones and tablets. But we're not going to be a society of just smartphones and tablets, no. We're going to be a society of smartphones, tablets, and SmartTVs.
How many people do you know who have already stopped using their desktop? Do you still use your laptop for anything other than business?
The first move in this shift was when we all moved from landlines to the cellular network. During the last five years or so, many people have been abandoning their TV services and switching to cable or DSL. How many people now watch their favorite shows on services like Hulu or Netflix or Amazon Prime?
It used to be that these services all came as a package: phone, Internet, and TV. So we've gotten rid of the phone and are in the process of getting rid of the TV. So the next logical step is really getting rid of our Internet service and going cellular. Do you have 4G yet? It's pretty fast and people are already routing their Internet service to their 4G network when WiFi is hard to find.
And really, why not move to the cellphone? It has enough processing power to do most anything we want to do. Watch videos? Yes. Take pictures? Sure. Browse the Internet? Yep. Check email? Absolutely. Update that Google Document? Here, use a wireless keyboard. No desktop or laptop required.
Now, most of us still have a desktop or laptop for our business needs, but how much longer will that last? Another 10 years? Five? Even now, when I'm not working, I'm not on my computer. Entertainment is done from the iPhone or iPad (streaming to the TV).
If I talk to gamers in their 20s, they're all on a laptop, console, or tablet, with more moving to the tablet every year. If I talk to grandparents, they're all on their phones. If I talk to people aged 40 to 60, they now have their phones and either a tablet or e-reader. For those in their 30s, phones and tablets are most popular. A laptop is usually in an abandoned home office gathering dust.
Indeed, the only reason these days to turn on a laptop is to print something out, but via the cloud we can now send photos or documents automatically to places like RiteAid and get instantaneous print outs at a reasonable price. Do we really need to continue to purchase a print cartridge and printer for that rare occasion (and getting rarer) we need to print something?
Photos are all now stored on the cloud. Do we really need an HDD to store them? Documents can be on Google Docs. Keyboards are wireless and we're moving to a projection market where we could make larger screens against almost any surface.
So what do you think? Is this an industry-wide shift and the way we buy and use electronics will never be the same? Is the computing segment on its way out?
@Mr.Roques: I agree with you, the fiber brings any broadband capacity we need, but sometimes it is not easy to install and setup; the picture, at the end, is different, depending on country. It seems the future is towards mobile, in the sense that mobile providers are a step for deploying across the globe a whole wireless network. Have you ever heard of Interplanetary Network?
@Cryptoman: well, your list is so long then doable to self-explain how PC is still a strategic component, at least for now; with regard to tablets, I think so, potentially some of them are in condition to replace most important I/O you have mentioned, but another point to discuss is about the power; right now battery still doesn't allow an H24-a-day operation, then we need to recharge it by using network power. PC are made for strong usage, for optimizing power consumption and they are also doable to manage better then smartphones the overheating phenomenon.
I agree with you in that the edge devices are changing. Some groups are still "lagging" in the move away from PC but some of those groups are and have been the most techies (gamers) who are always looking for higher clock speeds, ram, graphics, etc.
Regarding your comments that we will migrate to a mobile-only connection, I have to disagree. Mobile infrastructure is not ready, and I don't think it will ever be, to handle all of our traffic. The push of FTTH and other fixed services validates that.
What I think is going to change is the data plans offered, those "all-you-can-eat", will cease to exist (and I'm not talking about mobile plans).
In the future, there may be a good substitute for a PC but I don't think it's that time yet. I do have an ideal set up in mind that would make me consider giving up my PC. My wish list is as follows:
1 - A tablet device that is dockable when working at a desk with a large enough screen (minimum 14 inches). The device should be th,n and light with good screen resolution.
2 - The tablet device should have a swivel head camera that you can move rather than having to move the entire tablet.
3 - 4 high speed USB ports, 1 VGA output, multi standard built-in card reader.
4 - Good driver support with an active developer community actively working on applications for the OS.
5 - Foldable and light keyboard that can interface to the tablet with Bluetooth or USB.
6 - Optional mouse connectivity option that can be used when working at a desk.
7 - Touchscreen interface should still work even when external keyboad and mouse are connected and working. (i.e. these interface options shall not be mutually exclusive)
8 - Good processing horsepower, good battery life (8 hours when working continuously).
9 - 256 GB SSD hard drive.
10 - A slim blue ray, DVD-RW, CD RW combo drive. It should be one of those Mac drives that you simply push a disc through to allow for a thin enough design.
10 - Of course, last but not least, a price that will not break my bank account!
Wouldn't it be a joy to have such a machine?
I am thinking for the full remote control you have mentioned, maybe the tablet devices we have today will suffice. They will certainly need an IR or a suitable wireless interface though.
@Cryptoman: it's a good point, I've read several times your post and I am convinced you have figured out why we can't consider over PC's age. I wanted only to remind PC is a key component for new services coming soon, especially for allowing full remote control of home devices as per post-digital era paradigm.
That might be the fight to occupy the place of a PC or at least to stay relevant just like PC and go beyond mere entertaiment but into every aspect of our daily lives.
YOu made a good point there, but what effect will this have on sales because its not an easy thing for a one time most "essential equipment" to now become "optional" in market
I think easy mobility is one of the advantages of these smart devices which adds to the comfort of carrying one too. Then if I have to connect to big screen, don,t you think that my "mobility" has hindered some how?
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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