It may be tempting to say that the current shift in user trends for consumer devices is limited to a generational shift, but in reality, it's affecting our grandparents and parents as well as our children.
The shift is crossing platforms from gamers to casual users and business clients, and it's changing the types of services we purchase for our homes and how we assign value to products.
This is the shift away from the computing segment to the consumer segment. As a society we are leaving our desktops and notebooks behind and moving to smartphones and tablets. But we're not going to be a society of just smartphones and tablets, no. We're going to be a society of smartphones, tablets, and SmartTVs.
How many people do you know who have already stopped using their desktop? Do you still use your laptop for anything other than business?
The first move in this shift was when we all moved from landlines to the cellular network. During the last five years or so, many people have been abandoning their TV services and switching to cable or DSL. How many people now watch their favorite shows on services like Hulu or Netflix or Amazon Prime?
It used to be that these services all came as a package: phone, Internet, and TV. So we've gotten rid of the phone and are in the process of getting rid of the TV. So the next logical step is really getting rid of our Internet service and going cellular. Do you have 4G yet? It's pretty fast and people are already routing their Internet service to their 4G network when WiFi is hard to find.
And really, why not move to the cellphone? It has enough processing power to do most anything we want to do. Watch videos? Yes. Take pictures? Sure. Browse the Internet? Yep. Check email? Absolutely. Update that Google Document? Here, use a wireless keyboard. No desktop or laptop required.
Now, most of us still have a desktop or laptop for our business needs, but how much longer will that last? Another 10 years? Five? Even now, when I'm not working, I'm not on my computer. Entertainment is done from the iPhone or iPad (streaming to the TV).
If I talk to gamers in their 20s, they're all on a laptop, console, or tablet, with more moving to the tablet every year. If I talk to grandparents, they're all on their phones. If I talk to people aged 40 to 60, they now have their phones and either a tablet or e-reader. For those in their 30s, phones and tablets are most popular. A laptop is usually in an abandoned home office gathering dust.
Indeed, the only reason these days to turn on a laptop is to print something out, but via the cloud we can now send photos or documents automatically to places like RiteAid and get instantaneous print outs at a reasonable price. Do we really need to continue to purchase a print cartridge and printer for that rare occasion (and getting rarer) we need to print something?
Photos are all now stored on the cloud. Do we really need an HDD to store them? Documents can be on Google Docs. Keyboards are wireless and we're moving to a projection market where we could make larger screens against almost any surface.
So what do you think? Is this an industry-wide shift and the way we buy and use electronics will never be the same? Is the computing segment on its way out?
@MrR: well, absolutely yes, I agree with the fact fiber deployment's cost is only a limitation for now; other point to by-pass the issue, should be for example the possible infrastructure sharing among several players which are real owner of several infrastructures already deployed like Utilities, for instance. It could be a little help even in speeding up endusers' connections.
Cost, in technology, is only a short-run limitation... in the long run, the cost will undoubtedly go down. So, even in rural areas, the cost of launching a fiber optic network, at least FTTx (to the curb, etc) will be reasonable.
Also, Universal Service Funds (USF) will continue to gravitate towards broadband adoption. This will create PPPs that can make the best use of the available funds.
@Mr.R: exactly Mr.Roques, that's right, the matter is really fascinating. Coming back to the debat on network media deployment, on one hand is true, spectrum is usually limited, on the other hand fiber delivery impacts, sometimes, on physical urban path and the timeplan; usually, apart for smartcity or towns which already hold a broadband physical network, costs for fibers are still quite huge because we need to consider the physical impact for the deployment. Anyway I am convinced the near future is bringing several innovations for mitigating similar problems.
I have, actually from Vint Cerf himself [interplanetary networks]. Very interesting.
Regarding mobile, it is a lot cheaper and faster, but available spectrum will always, always be a limitation. The limitation of fiber is cost, which is going down...
If this dream machine is going to replace my PC at home, I am sure I am not the only PC user who expects that. I would expect it to have the required specs. I do realise it is too much to ask for given the current state of the art and I do not expect this configuration to arrive anytime soon at an affordable price.
If this dream configuration will become a reality at an affordable price in say 5 years, I can wait. No problem.
My point was to give an indication of how unrealistic it is to expect that the PC era will be over soon. I think the PC era will not end but it will be "transformed" into something else potentially with a much better operating system than the traditional Windows. One thing is for sure though: if a market opportunity is created, some people will always be willing to fill it. This applies to the PC as well.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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