Should we still consider the cost of labor as one of the main decision points in outsourcing or moving manufacturing to a low-cost region? The answer is, of course, yes. However, with a shift in the global landscape, we should look closely at where that decision may take us. Historically, most roads have led to Asia, and more specifically China. Assuming that our decisions to either move or outsource operations to countries other than our home base are for all the right reasons, let's focus on the trends of just the labor rates.
Somewhere around the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, there was an inflection in a grouping of low-cost country labor rates that we track: India, China, Thailand, and Mexico. Labor rates at all of these countries dropped, except for China, which continued to climb. There has been a bit of jostling over the past few years, but the forecasted outcome is that China will continue to increase at an average rate of about 13 percent per year over the next five years. This leaves them at the highest labor rate in this group of countries. Mexico and Thailand have very similar hourly rates, which are lower than China, and a very similar average annual growth rate of about 5 percent per year over the next five years.
When we look towards Europe, we track Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. While all of these countries have higher rates than our Asia grouping, Ukraine and Romania are very competitive with more modest growth rates over the next five years in the range of 10 percent per year.
Pulling back to a higher level, we see that in real terms, labor rates for Ukraine, China, Mexico, Thailand, India, and Romania are projected to be between $3 and $6 per hour at the end of 2016. The fundamental question is how much does this affect us? Of course, this impacts each company differently, as the percentage of labor content and technology varies by product.
When making decisions to move operations, there are other indicators and metrics we suggest besides the capabilities of outsource partners, transportation costs, infrastructure, and the like. Looking at foreign direct investment, GDP for industry per worker, and regional risk assessment will help build a more comprehensive picture.
I think foreign students at Western universities are a good competent labour resource for the Western high-tech industries. Only the selected few foreign students, i.e. "creme de la creme", are allowed to work in the West after completing their studies. The West will carry on employing the relevant foreign workers for years to come as this is one of the key drivers of innovation in the West.
"At Apple, interns are an important part of the team. Whether you sign on for a summer internship or a co-op during the academic year, you'll be working on critical projects. Better yet, you'll be that much closer to landing a full-time job at Apple after graduation."
That is a good example of how the big companies create the "natural selection" environment I mentioned above. Have you noticed how big and successful companies boast with having an international working environment with people from so-and-so number of countries in the world? Those Western companies have discovered long ago that by employing international talent, they make every spent dollar stretch as far as it possibly can. I have seen many examples of how employing foreign workers is so beneficial for a company but I will not get into the details of this in order not to get off-topic.
As for the returning students to their home countries, surely the aggregate intellectual level of the nation goes up, however, unless there is a suitable infrastructure to allocate the returning talents into suitable jobs, such talents are simply wasted. I have witnessed many examples of such waste in a third world country where extremely talented and well-educated technical people end up doing irrelevant work purely to earn their bread. This third world country was (and still is) simply not equipped to make use of such people. This situation can only be described as a tragedy in my book.
I conclude by saying "An education abroad ensures nothing at home unless that home is built well enough to accommodate".
How do you see the increasing trend of Chinese,Korean and Indian Students attending Higher Education in American Colleges play out into this theme?
Will it ensure that these countries get the right Engineering skills and manpower back in their home countries?
Increasingly,I see a lot of restrictions on these Skilled people in the West[US,UK,Europe];basically you can study here but we don't want you working here.How will that impact things?
I think making a conclusive statement such as "we are not going to see any concrete cases of Innovation from either China or India today" is difficult. It depends on the incentives available for people to make innovations. I am pretty sure there are very creative thinkers in India and China and such people are the drivers of innovation at the end of the day. Yes, the current manufacturing trends in those countries are based on western designs. However, that will not be a stopper for innovation in India and China. As a matter of fact, having access to every step of manufacturing high-tech products can be very inspiring for young people working there. Thanks to this exposure they have the opportunity to "borrow" ideas from existing designs to create better and more advanced products.
I also think that innovation does need to be supported by a solid infrastructure of mentors, designers, private and government support. The education system has to plant the seeds of curiosity into young minds rather than giving merit to memorising what is already available in textbooks. That is how creativity is nurtured, i.e. by providing the necessary space for the human brain to develop in the right direction. All of these essentials of innovation cannot be created overnight though. A country has to commit to a long journey in order to join the club of solid innovators.
At the end of the day, there is no mental difference between the people on this planet. Anyone can create anything. The difference is in how people are taught, directed and motivated throughout their lives as well as the living and the sociopolitical conditions in their home geography.
China's wages are increasing because of three major reasons-One is that the Governments of most States are mandating/pushing for massive increases in Minimum Wages there.
Obviously,one you mandate Minimum Wages,prices rise for everything and especially Labour.
The second is that People are less willing to work for dirt-poor wages which they were willing to work for previously(expectations of a much better life).
And Finally,its because the supply of Labor coming in from Rural/interiors of China is drying up thanks to their One-Child policy.
The country's economy will hopefully be able to move up the Value chain(into Services) as manufacturers withdraw from the country.
Otherwise,things could get ugly very,very quickly.
The question you posed upfront--should we continue to consider the cost of labor--made me stop and think about that for a second. What a wonderful world it would be if all costs were equal and we didn't have all this squabbling and infighting about jobs and outsourcing. Of course, there's no way I can see eliminating job costs from the equation, and your points are well-made.
@Cryptoman - A friend of mine works in softweare testing, and related the same kinds of issues with outsourcing software development. I supppose offshore sources may eventually develop enough expertise to address some of the quality problems. but Iwonder if, by that time, labor rate rise enough to wipe out the benefit anyway.
I think there are other distinct advantages to manufacturing in China, although labor rates may not be one of them. Over the years manufacturing clusters have become prolific, starting along the coast and moving inland. We've published a white paper (Clusters Meld the Benefits of Modern Offshoring and Traditional Vertical Integration) on manufacturing clusters, its posted on the EBN Avnet Velocity site.http://www.ebnonline.com/velocity/
Truck or rail? Air or sea? The mode of transport can offer competitive advantage for organizations to increase profit margins through carefully optimizing their mode selection.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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