This dialogue occurred on Wednesday, August 20, at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

The supply chain grows more complex with every advancement and innovation in global distribution, but it hasn't quite reached the complexity of other global phenomena, like the weather. That means one can still make predictions about trends. We've asked Jim O'Reilly to make some predictions while answering your questions.
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Thanks everyone -- great chat

User Rank   Stock Keeper

Has anyone else heard about the Advanced Core Operating System? Sounds ultra-cool!!!

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

And have a great rest of the afternoon, everyone!

User Rank   Blogger

LOL, thanks for burning them up for us Jim!

User Rank   Blogger

@Jim-Highly accurate.America started this mess in the first place,its about time the Europeans jumped ship.

Last I heard a lot of the Countries who were initially backing the Russian Sanctions are now getting cold feet thanks to losses and Layoffs they are currently facing.

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

Thanks everyone. now going to soak my fingers to cool them off!!!!

User Rank   Blogger

tech4people...sanctions are the least dangerous option to pressure Russia to stop playing with Ukraine. The next alternative almost certainly was accelqerated NATO membership or a guarantee of border integrity by NATO...that caused a problem in September 1939

User Rank   Blogger

Thanks Jim. Good session.

User Rank   Blogger

Looks like we are winding down right at the right time Jim. We have reached our 30 minutes. Any last points, or any last questions for Jim, folks?

User Rank   Blogger

Rodney...B&M need to deliver more than lower prices than online to win...that's not economic.

The service issue suggests they will become more boutique over time. It's worth noting that online is recognising that challenge and is adding features like high-tech software to allow clothing to be modelled on the browser in a synthetic image. #d printing and smarter logistics will help online to keep pressure on.

User Rank   Blogger

@Rodney-Then those Purchasers are beyond foolish.Look what happened when Russia suddenly decided to Ban all American and European Food Imports.

The Europeans start ranting and raving like madmen.They had no contingency plans in place in losing a major-major market like Russia[over 50 Billion Dollars in Annual Food Imports from EU].

When it was the Europeans (aided on by America) that started the Sanctions mess in the first place.

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

tech4people...China has two problems. They use artificaial barriers to remain competitive, and if they were taken away that could hurt their position. More seriously is that they have an incredible bubble in real estate. It's almost of the class of the Dutch poppy bubble of a couple of centuries back. It accounts for empty new cities and such, and a lot of entities are over-extended.

China is trying to work out a soft landin, but it's a monster. I think they are doing a lot of the right things, though.

User Rank   Blogger

@tech4people, a collapse of the Chinese economy would be one of those tsunami-like factors that I doubt many electronics suppliers or purchasers are planning for.

User Rank   Blogger

@Jim-For brick and mortar to really,really survive they have to provide value and a great customer experience.I can see that happening if they move closer to Customers like say in NYC,etc.

 

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

@JimO: brick-and-mortar retailers will only survive if they provide a seamless online/physical experience for customers and change the way they do business--specifically level of customer service and approach to store design. 

User Rank   Stock Keeper

Hmm, which do you think will have the greater effect on the supply chain -- more near shoring, or more local Chinese component manufacturing?

User Rank   Blogger

All of this online stuff is eating up bricks and mortar retailers.....Can they survive?

User Rank   Blogger

As far as China pushing back-I was just reading a report saying that China's currency might be over-valued today by as much as 20%(thanks to their failed economy-All the Communist Party Members have taken sizeable sums of Cash out of China and invested in America,Canada ,Australia,New Zealand and UK today).

If that does cause an Implosion of the Chinese Economy [Thanks to all those failing Infrastructure and Construction projects in the country];their currency could collapse bigtime-20% easy .

What happens then?Will America also retaliate?

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

China is also looking to be self sufficient in the electronics industry, as a way to enter the big league of nations without too many dependencies

User Rank   Blogger

As I said earlier, China is pushing back against globalisation of their electronics manufacturing. Having local, cheap components is one way to increase the lock

User Rank   Blogger

tech4people - the cloud has taken away fear of going direct to the suppliers and now servers and storage are migrating towards cloud-based models...COTS, high-volume, no frills and direct from  manufacturers

User Rank   Blogger

JimO, I read that China is making a big push to increase domestic component manufacturing. If so, how would that impact the global market for components?

User Rank   Blogger

Analytics via Big Data will really change reatiling. You can already see that in the speed that targwetted ads appear on your browser after visiting some sites.

User Rank   Blogger

@tech4people: Thanks. in what ways are you seeing Big Data being incorporated?

User Rank   Stock Keeper

@Jim-Near-shoring? Its already happening in Energy Intensive Manufacturing sectors(thanks to the Shale Gas Boom in America).

 

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

Near-shoring is a bit of a dream still. Economically, it is on the edge of making sense, especial;y with robotics. However, expect China to push back, both at the corporate and the governement level.

Even so, the large Chinese ODMs are considering globalisation and this means a retail and manufacturing presence in the US makes sense.

User Rank   Blogger

@Jim-Cloud has definitely changed folks perception of what works and what does'nt in Technology.No doubts about that.

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

No worries tech4people, welcome!

User Rank   Blogger

@snunyc-Predictive Analytics was always a very-very big part of Supply Chain Logistics.Big Data is just starting to enter the picture.

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

Sorry I am slightly late folks! Got the invite very-very late!!

User Rank   Supply Network Guru

Yes jimC...We are seeing a switch from traditional HDD to SSD, from DRAM to HMC, and a move to COTS from Legacy, bolstered by the cloud. All these change what people buy.

This also changes who they buy from. The vendor bases for the new technologies is not necessarily traditional suppliers.

 

User Rank   Blogger

How are high-tech logistics supply chains using big data and predictive analytics to improve their own operaitonal efficiency?

User Rank   Stock Keeper

Any thoughts on.... is near-shoring really happening in high-tech logistics supply chains? or is it just hype?

User Rank   Blogger

Moving on to servers, the big technical issues are more compact modules. This means fewer components to sell. The motherboard will essentially become a CPU/memory module with just IO on the "motherboard." See Hybrid Memory Cube.

Timeframe is still 2 or 3 years for it to be a serious product

 

 

User Rank   Blogger

Jim, doesn't tech present two challenges in the electronics supply chain. First there is the type of technology that is being shipped/sold, and then there is the core tech that suppliers and buyers use. Right?

User Rank   Stock Keeper

Companies are starting to talk retail drives in their arrays...Nexenta and superMicro are examples.

This will migrate drive purchasing towards distribution and online outlets.

SSD is killing the enterprise hard drive market. This will adversely impact WD and Seagate, since they don't dominate the SSD space. The replacement rate of drives will be less than 1:1 for SSd over HDD, since much of today's HDD is there to provide multi-drive performance

User Rank   Blogger

Great minds, snunyc...

User Rank   Blogger

@Ken: You stole my question! :)

User Rank   Stock Keeper

Thanks Rodney. Hi JimC, Hi Jim O'R.

User Rank   Stock Keeper

Welcome Ken.

User Rank   Blogger

Welcome JimC.

User Rank   Blogger

Hello Jim.  What do you see as the big logistics trends in the ever change landscape of high tech?

User Rank   Blogger

Good afternoon everyone

User Rank   Stock Keeper

Storage is likely shift from a high markup model with EMC, NetApp etc in dominacne to a mixed market with commodity pricing and new (Vhinese) suppliers keeping competition high.

 

User Rank   Blogger

Welcome snunyc, and just in time!

User Rank   Blogger

That's a lot of interconnected topics. I am vry interested in the affect of whitebox chinese appliances on the market. Reduce demand for components for DIY type IT dpeartments?

User Rank   Blogger

It was an oversight all right. It destroyed any real credibility matching the model to the real world, and so any predictions were more hype than science

User Rank   Blogger

Greedings all, sorry I'm late!

User Rank   Stock Keeper

Thechniacl trends re changing electronics considerably. This to me is a period of fast change in a lot of basic areas.

Let's start with Storage:

 

SSD, replacing enterprise HDD

Buy your own drive storage appliances

Whitebox appliances from China

3D flash

User Rank   Blogger

Seriously? That seems like a big oversight. It's not like the sun drives all the weather and climate or anything.

User Rank   Blogger

There are fundamental technical trends and market and logistic forces at work. Let me start with the electronics industry, and then broaden it out to cover other areas.

User Rank   Blogger

We're due for a cool spell. It's intersting that the Sun has much more impact than any AGW effects - the IPCC model didn't even take the Sun into account until recently.

User Rank   Blogger

As the flood of chatters slowly builds, tell us what factors you think are playing the biggest role in what will happen in the supply chain for the remainder of 2014.

User Rank   Blogger

Well, that's no fun. However, it might offset global warming, so we've go that going for us.

User Rank   Blogger

I even make predictions about the weather......Like the Scandinavian scientists, I'm forecasting a mini-Ice-Age for the next 45 years as the Sun enters a period of low activity!

 

User Rank   Blogger

Seems like a slow start today. Late summer doldrums I bet. (Not that I too would rather be fishing...)

User Rank   Blogger

Howdy Jim, and welcome.

User Rank   Blogger

Hello Rodney, everyone

User Rank   Blogger

Five minutes until we are live with Jim O'Reilly!

User Rank   Blogger

Welcome Jacob, and I hope you can join us!

User Rank   Blogger
Another 90 minutes to go for this interesting section to start
User Rank   Supply Network Guru
Another 90 minutes to go for this interesting section to start
User Rank   Supply Network Guru
Hope to attend this interesting section
User Rank   Supply Network Guru
Hi all
User Rank   Supply Network Guru
EBN Dialogue / LIVE CHAT
EBN Dialogue enables you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Open to the entire EBN community of electronics supply chain experts, these conversations see ideas shared, comments made, and questions asked and answered in real time. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats. Stay tuned and join in!
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We'll be talking about the 10 most important procurement performance metrics, from the old standards to new and emerging best-practices.
10/30/2014
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Live Chat 11/06: Enterprise Risks, Intellectual Property & Supply Chains
Enterprise risk management (ERM) frameworks can be useful to identify, assess, and manage intellectual property (IP) risks that arise in supply chain compliance. We'll look at real-world examples and strategies for mitigating those risks.
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Live Chat 10/16: Applying a Macroeconomic Lens to the Supply Chain
EBN blogger Apek Mulay will be our guest as we talk about how macroeconomic reforms have the potential to impact the supply chain.
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Dave Bowen, CEO of e-sourcing firm MarketMaker4, will be our guest as we explore ways to minimize and manage geo-political and corporate risk in supply chain and sourcing through the use of technology.

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