Demand forecasting and accuracy is always a big issue. That's why if companies can create more collaboration between suppliers and manufactureres, then the bullwhip effect can be minimized. There are tools out there if the companies decide that's the way to go.
The difference on the market is because in the third quarter the compaines get ready for the increase on demand by the Holidays at the End of the year, same as in the first quarter, the companies face a very limited customer demand based on the fact most of the people spend lots of money at the end of the year.
To prevent that, let's say there's a new release on PS3, they will release a limited quanty in the holidays and then fill the consumers stores in the first quarter, this way the consumer will not find it on sale but will pay full price after the holidays.
The trouble is (atleast in America),for there to be more demand you are going to need Fresh Stimulus(both fiscal as well as monetary);but with the kind of dispensation we have today(both in Congress as well in the White House);permits that possibility occuring.
So America is not going to be a good source of demand.
Europe as we all know is cratering like theres no tommorow thanks to austerity.
Asia is suffering from serious Inflationary Blues which makes it very difficult(if not impossible) for more people to upgrade their Devices this year.
So where is the demand going to come from???
So I will have to go with the strong possibility that this coming slowdown turns into a serious-serious recession .
We are heading into a recession that wiill make the first one look tiny by comparison. There will be no stress because there will be cratering demand. The day of reckoning for that massive spending and borrowing binge is about to hit hard. Meanwhile the political garbage in D.C. continues with business as usual.
Looking at the amount(&extent) of which demand destruction(especially on Consumer side) is taking place worldwide as we head back into a Global Economic Slowdown[AS well as Inventories which are starting to pile up( at all major electronic retailers as well as at Manufacturers) ;I will have to strongly disagree.
No the Supply Chain is unlikely to see much stress in Q3.
DennisQ, I'm equally not too concerned, there might be a slight slow down, given current crisis. I don’t think it will be unusually affected. Hence, I support your view.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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