Good point. I think the widespread usage of SSDs alone will boost PC sales. Just changing to a SSD in your PC can boost performance significantly (I've seen it myself). Once the prices begin to drop, it should be a good string of quarters for vendors.
The PC market is definitely set for new innings since we are hearing lot of new technologies being announced such as USB3 for the high-speed data transfer, Display port in the case of a digital display interface, 10G Ethernet and SSD's. The future PC's are also portable and could inbuilt all the newer technologies. Tablet market also is set to grow in a big way to provide the portable digital entertainment more than the computing experince to the users.
That is true that developing nations do tend to skip a generation or two in regards to technological innovations, but I think one thing you are not considering is that PCs are often used differently in those nations as well.
Laptops and tablets are great and all, but most of the time, these are not shared and are only used by one consumer. Part of the appeal of desktops is that they are more easily shared and managed by places like Internet Cafes.
In the states, Internet Cafes (or whatever you want to call them) aren't that especially popular, but take a look at places like South Korea: despite the relative tech-savvy of the population and the insane, INSANE popularity of PC games there, a very large majority of the population utilizes computers in Internet Cafes and having a truly "personal" computer is less common.
So I think it makes sense to me that in many of these developing nations, the desktop will be a very popular form factor as one machine can be easily shared amongst many members of a community. Plus, do keep in mind that these people would tend to have less incentive to have a personal device, as they would typically not utilize it as often as, say, your typical American would.
I agree with eemon but as for the issue of developing countries, they don't always have to follow the trail of technological inovations if there are to develop.
By that i mean, that depending on how fast technology grows, developing countries sometimes have to skip a generation or 2 or technological inovations, especially when they start to develop. This is the only way they can catch up. if they have to travel along the same technological road, they will never meet up.
But truth be told, it will take a while for tablet to pick up, but who know, it just might be sooner than we think. it would be no fun if it takes donkey years.
I agree that tablets will in the future take over for laptops. I don't agree that it is anytime soon. Tablets are in their infancy as far as consumer adoption. It will take a long time before tablets hit the tipping point that laptops are at now. Even then, Laptops will have a home in developing countries as they phase out desktops completely. This process will take several years.
We moved from first generation to 2nd, 3rd, now what generation are we at?
Laptops came to give mobility, compact design and ease, now they have evolved to tablets and smart phones.
Once tablest and smart phones can offer the processing power of a laptop, then they just might replace them, just the way laptops are facing out desktops.
Turely some applications don't need them but where possible, tablets and smart phones just might take a more centre stage soon.
I for one would love to be able to do whatever i want even on the go, and only a tablet or smartphone can offer me that.
The day i get a smartphone that can run the applications i need to work, i can transfer my work to them when leaving the office and work as i go.
While here in the states you'll talk to many IT people who insist that the PC is dying as a form factor and the future will be dominated by tablets and smartphones, I think that's important to note that there is still great potential for the PC desktop form factor in the developing world.
And while the desktop PC does indeed seem to be decreasing in popularity, I think the future still remains bright for laptops/netbooks.
So in other words, I agree: the PC market may not be as "cool" as it once was, but it's not going to go away, and there's still a lot of potential for growth. Just maybe not growth in the traditional places.
I too agree that PCs in any form whether laptops,notebooks or any conventional ones would continue to be in demand. You can do so much with computers these days that you hardly need any other source of entertainment. I guess its now a necessity of life.
Bolaji, I see for the foreseeable future that PCs and laptops will be complimentary to tablets and smart phones and not outright competitive.I for one am not ready to abandon my laptop/notebook computer and exclusively only use my tablet and/or smart phone.On the contrary, I would venture to guess that the majority of tablet users today also own a PC. But this doesn’t mean my point of view won’t change two or three years from now.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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