As someone who lived through the first dotcom bubble (my start-up actually made it and was sold to a bigger company, which was then sold to a giant conglomerate), I think it's very safe to say that the bubble this time around isn't nearly as big.
I do think investors generally learned from the mistakes of the first bubble. It was far, far easier back then to get funding with just an idea or a vague concept. Nowadays, you need much, much more than that before getting that VC backing.
Back then, it was common to see a large investment in a start-up and think, "what are they thinking?!" But these days, it's much rarer to see those obviously ill-advised investments. The last one I remember in recent times was the moronic $41 million thrown at Color earlier this year.
Anyhow, even if there is another dot-com bubble burst, like I said, the bubble isn't nearly as big now. It won't be nearly the disaster the first one was.
I think the bubble of 2000/2001 was kind of a unique situation. Everything was so new. So many people were throwing money at things that they didn't understand. I'm not saying that this no longer happens, just that these days the bad investments are fewer and much smaller in terms of cost. And part of this is due to the fact that the costs of putting together a start-up are a small fraction of what they were in the late 90's.
Well, in my opinion, it is not completly right to use "bubble"; new start-ups are coming and it is good now and it was good also in the past. Key factor is what there is behind that: fog or consistency ? In case you are bringing on the field consistency, sooner or later, you will achieve good results for your entrepreneurial idea.
I agree with you. Success may be 1 in 5. But that is good rate! You may have to try more - 2, 3 or more. But eventually fruits of one success are so great, it is worth the efforts. Also, it is good for economy for both developed and developed economy.
I guess they use the term "bubble" for similarity with the real-state bussines, where every 10 o 15 years prices are lowered to riase the interest to buy, that might be the same strategy in the supply chain.
There are two factors that make any kind of exuberance in tech start-ups unlikely. One is the unfavorable credit situation that small businesses are faced with. The other is the trend of more established business to stretch out their payables to 60 days and more instead of the 30 days that used to be customary.
Interesting obervation by TechCrunch, regarding the darwinism inherent in the present startups' success and failure. 2000/2001 saw a lot of excitement mainly due to the novelty of the industry. Past decade has seen maturity set in with the VCs, which are far more pragmatic with their investements and have reduced the percentage of their bets on really ambitious projects. Hence, I doubt if there would be another dot com bust as severe as witnessed earlier.
One of the reasons we are seeing a bunch of new start-ups is the success that online sites such as Google, Facebook and Groupon have so far experienced. But they are the exception: a decade ago, there were 50 or more failures for every dotcom success. Social media is now the new Internet--it's a new venue, but nobody really knows how it is going to play out. At the same time, everybody wants to be in on the one compnay that hits paydirt.
Another reason we see more online companies is they are inexpensive to set up. But there comes a time when even a low overhead compnay has to seek backing. I think that's where many of these companies are right now: they've made some traction on their own steam but need venture to reach the next level.
Lack of quality on IPOs was/is maybe related to a wrong perception about the reason to launch startups. At the time of the bubble, it was broadcasted "start-up" as one of the way to make profit easy. As consequence wrong dream also as marketing message from the valley to incentive ventures in investments has been broguth outside and companies based on poor entrepreneurial idea/consistency have been tried to launch. Am I really wrong on this feeling?
The whole posture of the investing community is, understandably, more cautious and probably more realistic than it was in the previous dotcom bubble. Lets hope that, when the economy does improve, the companies that did obtain funding can flourish.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.