Sounds like a fantastic conference and breakout session. The Google vs. Facebook question is fascinating. I don't see it as an either/or, but I am woefully unsavvy regarding the vision of these two companies. They are undoubtedly the forces to be reckoned with over the next five years, and what investors intend to do is as good a "crystal ball" as any to use as a planning tool. For the supply chain, the bottom line is there will be hardware opportunities here. I'd stop short of adding "if you back the right horse." I'm not sure it has come down to that--yet.
>will a company -- let's call it WidgetsMaker -- be happy being known in cyberspace as www.facebook.com/widgetsmaker, or will it buck this trend and demand to be known on Facebook as www.widgetsmaker.com/facebook?<
I don't think Facebook will accept being a level down from a member domain name. It's still very much Mark Zuckerberg's baby and ego-driven cool-consciousness is still very much a part of its business model.
Yes its a valid point Facebook would never want to step down and be called as www.widgetsmaker.com/Facebook, its difficult for the users to digest such a change.
@Stochastic excursion, Right. That brings up the question, if Facebook will not bend to these companies, will they move to another platform? Can they afford to shift to another platform, what is the cost of attempting to do this and how feasible would it be? In the end, one side will have to give up ownership of its marketing message.
The conference sounds interesting and indeed some insight.
Looks like 2012 is gonna face some jolt with respect to sales need to see something different may happen during th end.
Hold your horses if you are rooting for Google to win over Facebook.
For the cap that facebook is wearing its difficult for google to take over i liked the way you phrased it. I am wondering what the rest of investors looking at in the next 5 years some magical service.
If we look at next 5 years Apple , Google, Microsoft,Blackberry will be holding a tugg off war amoung their smartphone OS and Tablets. Apple may loose its market share and may be some other company may take over. People would have saturated in investing time and money to buy all the new technology gadgets and which telecom provider they need to make a choice.
over all automation industry may take a different shape with companies trying to automate every single entity from their homes, cars till their office table.
Just some thoughts on the future of Facebook versus Google specifically...
If I had to place bets on which company is more likely to be better off five years from now, I'd sink nearly all my money into a bet on Google.
Here's the key difference: Facebook is really pretty much a social networking site. And the audience can be fickle. Look at how quickly MySpace collapsed. If Facebook experiences a few privacy breaches or somebody comes up with a, "Facebook... only cooler," they could be overtaken.
Alternatively, Facebook's appeal could wear off. People may get tired of spending so much time on Facebook and use it less and less. It's the type of thing some people will grow out of.
Google, on the other hand, is much more established and does a bunch of other various things. They could completely lose their search engine business today and they'd be fine. Really, if Google blocked everyone from searching on Google.com... not a huge deal. They're still the biggest player in online advertising. They have things like GMail and YouTube. They're working on viable self-driving cars and other technologies we're probably not even aware of.
Anyhow, that's just my opinion... I'm not saying I think Facebook will disappear within five years, just that I wouldn't be shocked if "Facebook Fever" isn't nearly as strong five years from now.
@DennisQ, I would place my bet with yours as far as the Facebook-Google standoff is concerned. The points you made were on my mind when the folks in the room at the conference were voting and I must admit to being surprised most people weren't seeing Google as a stronger company. Google is already in most of the businesses Facebook plays in and even though Google+ may not be as dominant today as Facebook, I would give it a good fighting chance for surviving, thriving and expanding five years from now. Today, Google also announced its competing program to the iTunes music market.
Google's other interests in smartphone and tablet PC operating system (Android), TV, automation, maps, You Tube, etc., make it a stronger player than Facebook, which is still a one-trick pony in my opinion.
I disagree, though, about the search market. Google does search better than any other company and its algorithm sets it apart although Bing and others are fighting hard for market share. The search functionality is one of the factors giving Google the great edge it has in online advertising. Without search and the ability to "organize" web content for users, Google will have its wings clipped. Nevertheless, given a 5-year span, I would pick Google over Facebook anyday.
@Bolaji, yes, perhaps I was being a bit too casual regarding the importance of search to Google's business. Obviously, shutting off search WOULD not be some insignificant event: even if the business wasn't hurt too badly, there'd be a lot of angry users out there including myself, at the very least. Although Bing isn't all that bad...
That being said, Google's advertising revenue would probably be effected less than you'd probably think: their Doubleclick products wouldn't be impacted, Google AdX and AdWords would still be just fine (just would lose a bit of inventory). Same with AdMeld, Invite Media... there are tons of Google products that have little to no dependence on search.
But again, yes, I was underselling the importance of search to Google. My point was just that I believe that Google could survive and thrive at this point without the part of their business they're best known for. Facebook, on the other hand, wouldn't be much if you took away profile pages.
Glad you agree with me on the rest of my post, though!
Well, what would Google be without its search engine? Gmail, Google Talk, YouTube... while YouTube can drive a lot of revenue, it definitely takes a lot to maintain. Facebook hasn't expanded beyond their social network but I think it is equally important to both.
The questions asked are very interesting, maybe you should post that as a separate poll for EBN!
I dont know if predictive analyst could come up with a forecast on this. One certainty, in the world today few players in technology are known for pacesetting which in sometimes leads to competitions. That has typified Apple and Google, but Facebook is currently in the heart of social networking website and i cant really place it there, I think! And facebook in 2016, are the millions of users wont get bored?
Google's Android has so far caused 2 major problem in smartphone market: 1 - Nokia's symbia OS, 2 - Blackberry also got a fair share of maket effect. Which i also think Google's mobile wallet might follow similar direction in years ahead - competition in mobile payment amongst the mobile phone operators.
For instance, according to a report by the Daily Telegraph UK last week, mobile phone operators teamed together to launch a scheme called Project Oscar, this will provide a platform to simplify and accelerate the uptake of mobile market and mobile payments, which enable users to swap their physical wallets for ones based on SIM cards.
In addition to that, Daily Telegraph reported the Project Oscar, would give British companies a chance of competing with Google's mobile wallet.
@Wale, Innovation is important to success in the electronics industry and the winner is the company that can come up with the best product or outwit other players. The barriers to entry are falling faster than innovators can erect new ones, though, and that is a concern to companies because with each innovation, the window to gain profits from inventions is limited.
When the two companies go head to head a third one needs to examine what these have done good and what bad and come up with a third solution. Was Apple able to do these comparisions very well in past?
@Parser, Apple actually prides itself on doing things others haven't thought of or done before. The company, reportedly, doesn't even do customer surveys to determine what its consumers might like. It just gives consumers what it believes they would like because, according to Apple, consumers really don't know what they like until they get it.
I can't say I agree completely with Apple but as someone once told me, "test your ideas first, and then if they beat mine, I'll adopt yours." Apple's strategy is tested so it's difficult telling the company to try something new. And, just refining what someone else has done or is doing won't make a company the best in its business. That's why Apple is selling the iPad at full price and RIM is selling its Playbook at a hefty discount!
They don't do customer surveys, but each major Apple application like iTunes, iPhoto or Keynote has a pull down menu with Provide Feedback link, which takes you to Apple site where you can write what does not work or what you would like to see implemented. On the other hand I believe Apple engineers use their products themselves and discover cleaver ways to do things from a user perspecitive.
Some people say refining and others would say innovating like who would had put investment money into new cell phone when at that time Motorola, RIM and Nokia had already flooded the market.
@Parser, You are right. Sometime we get fixated on "marketing and consumer feedback" we forget there are different ways to get consumers to provide information on what they want.
Parser, Apple isn't doing traditional consumer survey but it is still getting feedback on its products from its customers. The company is getting information on the iPhone 4S not just from Consumer Reports but also from users directly. The information it gets may show up in the updates to the products or as a new product.
@Parser, the "Provide Feedback link" is an excellent feedback loop for Apple that is in real time. It cuts out independent polling groups and gives the viewer opportunity to visit the site. I applaud the use of Apple products by the design engineers. A real life experience and test of functionality at the same time. Thanks!
Google, on the other hand, is much more established and does a bunch of other various things.
Absolutely that's a big difference between Google and Facebook. And i believe in very nearer future, the gap would be too much open to be mindful for facebook. If i may ask, is Google on the verge of becoming EVERYTHING EVERWHERE?
Anyway, am wiating to see Google's:
1 - Global Distribution System to kick off soon
2 - Driverless vehicle, like you reported quiet few people not aware of. This might take time though.
If I had to choose, I would take Google over Facebook. Facebook does have many offerings, but is still a networking site. Facebook is also alienating many members with its constant changes and their way of thinking they know what you want and need.
Google on the other hand has a dominate presence, Google+, and now a music platform to compete with Itunes. I believe in the long run, Google will stay strong and survive.
Could Google succeed in becoming a "master of all trades?" Is "pecking" everywhere the good way for Google to stay competitive? For now Google+ is not meeting users' expectations and I wonder if a Google music platform could really be an alternative to itunes. The android market seems to be taking off, but I fear that in a few years Google might lose its dominance in the search engine business.
@Hospice, I wonder too if Google isn't trying too hard to offer a bit of this and that. The extension of its operations to so many different sectors in high tech may initially be a good thing in that it expands and diversify sales but it could also result in brand dilusion or even brand perception problem. At some point, a company has to decide what its core message would be and this difficult task would only be made more daunting by the expanded operation.
I believe facebook will be bigger in five years than google is right now. Facebook will grow without needing to cut into Google's core business of text ads, which are still 99% of Google's profits. Even if every facebook user performs just as many searches with Google as ever including Google instant, mobile search, Youtube, etc., Facebook will inexorably grow as big as google is today and may be bigger. What I mean by bigger is that Facebook already has more page views than Google, people already spend more time on Facebook than Google.
Anne, i have the same thinking as you. However, it is always surprise when it becomes such a big company now. Who knows what will happen in the future. Facebook will buy over Google?
The next five years? Why that's like trying to pridict the next two days when it comes to the tech industry.
For me, from my small end here, i think anything is possible. The only thing i know for sure is that we have no idea what the next 5years will bring, but any company that keeps operating the way it operates, maintaining grounds it thinks it has now and not looking for the next best thing, will have no place in the next 5years.
Facebook has to become something more than facebook, google is already a whole lot more than google already, so i think they stand a bette chance, but still their strenght has to shift from searching to who knows what!
i think we should also keep a look out for some underdogs from some unknown places, doing something new in a new way, the possibilites are endless.
@Electronics862, But how about a replacement for the two of them? If they won't replace one another, competitors aren't waiting to see them merely cannibalize each other. The competition is coming up with new things, new ideas and projects. We may get a platform that is easier to use and more versatile and, just as there was no facebook at the start of the last decade, it may exist only as a sidebar towards the end of the current one.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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