I think that EVs have come to stay this time around, it is important to understand that the factors that led to the EVs been non-commercially viable during the tim eof their disappearance in the 1920s are no longer in place. Energy prices have risen and will continue to rise, environmental responsibility is having serious effects on companies' images and by proxy their finances. Although recent surveys suggest that the high prices are the major barrier, the EV market will eventually follow the fundamental laws of demand and supply, leading to the prices becoming more affordable.
I think the biggest problem EVs have is the battery that they are built around. Assuming the batterys last 10 years, which may or may not be the case based on experience with other rechageable battery products, the EV is basically a throw away when the batteries are gone. It would be hard to justify spending $10K for a new battery in a 10 year old car. Most cars are pretty much thrashed at 10 years, and certainly not worth $10K unless it's a Mercedes or Ferrari. So an older EV that may be only has a couple of years left isn't going to be worth anything; there is no resale value after the first few years. If someone can figure out a way around that little problem, they will certainly be wealthy!
For faster growth of EV vehicles, we soon need to have IEEE or ANSI standard for EV Battery. With this, consumer will much more trust in the cost of vehicle and Electric cars. And cost of EV will come to 23K range.
In my opinion it is not the battery replacement cost but the payback period -of the additional initial cost ( 30k - 23k ) by way of saving in the fuel cost - is the important factor.
The ratio of battery recharge cost per mile vs fuel cost per mile should be such that the additional initial cost of EV is paid back in fuel cost savings in a period of three years. If the battery life is assumed to be 10 years then the net saving of fuel cost over the remaining 7 years will be a signifant amount of money and that will pull the customers to buy EVs.
So efficient battery managment systems is the key to the success of Evs
Despite uncertainty about where prices will go, manufacturers and suppliers aren't shying away from EVs' long-term potential.
@Jennifer, I think rising oil prices will definitely help imprve EV sales. Its already been rumoured that oil might cross its all time high of 150$ this year if things escalate in Iran. So rising oil price will make expensive EV's look more reasonable.
It would be hard to justify spending $10K for a new battery in a 10 year old car.
@JLS, I agree with your observation. I think we should have system where instead of recharging the battery you replace it with a vendor who owns all those batteries. So car is owned by us and battery is owned that company. This will help reduce the initial cost and moreover company can benefit by renting those batteries.
JLS - Good point. The durability of these batteries probably will factor into at least some consumers' thought process. A car is a big investment, and it makes sense that folks will want to amortize the cost over at least 7-10 years. But even with "regular" cars, I don't most people are hanging on to them beyond 10 years.
_hm - Ah, standards. Aren't they just wonderful things sometimes. Hope it does move in that direction. Would save lots of headaches down the road and speed up adoption.
Prabhakar - A good point. It's not just about the upfront costs, but the cost savings you reap over the long-term. Rising price of oil may strengthen that case soon enough.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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