Jay, You are right. That's why we compare year-over-year quarter results first before looking at sequential performance. In this case, we'll be juxtaposing first quarter 2012 with first quarter 2011. Then we'll watch for what the CFO & CEO have to say about the second quarter. Many of these companies already have an idea as to how the second quarter will look like simply by looking at the orders coming in and the percentage of this that customers accept and actually pay for.
Still, I wouldn't accept the word of anyone telling me they know anything beyond 90 days. Nobody does and even if they can guess how the market will fare in the second half, any wind (favorable or unfavorable) can blow in and alter the forecast completely.
While the first quarter numbers are a great indicator when compared to previous years numbers, they can also paint a different picture. Q1 sales could be up because many companies had a slow Q4 or were sitting on inventory. When the new quarter started they might of been able to pick up sales. I think in some instances Q2 results will give a better feel for how the year is being projected.
Barbara, still that imbalance is in HDD market. Now also the supply is less when compare with demand in most of the Asian countries. Moreover, the pricing are at higher end and I think with in another 6-9 months’ supply and demand can be get balanced.
It can hardly be fun watching inventory numbers when you can't get the supplies you need. One of the more intriguing issues in the electronics industry today is the what I see as our increasingly connected components world where all suppliers often find themselves dependent on rivals for sales growth. In other words, if your supplier isn't selling you may not be selling either because the OEMs need all the components and not just your part.
March is also considered the quarter that the impact of the natural disasters of last year should finally abate. I'm not sure if HDDs supply/demand are back in balance, but as you say, the inventory ticker is always fun to watch (unless you can't get the inventory you need.)
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.