@pocharle Yes, that's exactly it. We assume that th longer something has withstood any problems, the more assured we can be that it will remain so when the opposite is the case.
Referring the classic lit I see, you get points for that!
But this reminds me of the hard drive property MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure). The longer rhe drive spins, the closer you get to its failure. Most people assume it will never fail but each day brings you closer to the FAIL (and the annoying clicking noises).
@pocharles That is true. The problem is that they only plan for likely risks, the type they have already dealt with, and not those that seem unlikely. It is what George Eliot identified in Chapter 5 of Silas Marner over a century before Nassim Nicholas Taleb came out with his arguments forThe Black Swan:
The lapse of time during which a given event has not happened, is, in this logic of habit, constantly alleged as a reason why the event should never happen, even when the lapse of time is precisely the added condition which makes the event imminent. A man will tell you that he has worked in a mine for forty years unhurt by an accident as a reason why he should apprehend no danger, though the roof is beginning to sink ...
I have seen and heard that line many times. Now I understand that it is mostly just lip service by most organizations. People talk about planning for the worst but don't actually do it because the worst usually doesn't happen. They plan for mini-disasters with backups and mobile workforces but NOT the big bang that can put you out of business for a long time.
This is an industrywide problem but which most would rather not collaborate to solve. It comes down to dollars and cents at the individual companies and unless a firm experiences the supply constraints attendant upon a natural disaster, it's more likely they'll keep their focus on more immediate challenges.
Today, another earthquake off Indonesia has prompted countries to warn coastal towns of the possibility of a tsunami. Like Gerry said, these incidents don't provide explicit warnings. They just strike and kill and devastate infrastructural systems. (See: Indonesia Aceh quake triggers Indian Ocean tsunami alert.)
Gerry, an uninterrupted supply chain is necessary for the flow of goods from manufacturer to the assembling units. We had seen that this had been disturbed by last year Japanese tsunami, Taiwan’s floods etc. in such a scenario, I think diversified supply across the globe can ensure the supply through alternate channels, in case of any disaster. I think the information from Avnet’s depository can help the companies to know about the alternate channels, availability, source etc
I can understand why some companies might let things slip during the good times. To counter this it is important companies make disaster recovery planning part of their on going strategy that is managed and audited.
Gerry--I find myself dealing with whatever issue is in front of me and no matter how dramatic (or traumatic) it is, once things are back on track I am on to the next crisis. It is no surprise that businesses and organizations make the same mistake. Obviously, the nation of Japan cannot and will not forget the lessons of last year, but it is clear that parts of the world have moved on. Great advice on reflecting on the crisis, and kudos to companies such as Avnet that are keeping their eye on the ball and advising partners to consider the risks.
There are a number of indications that businesses are diversifying...there has been EMS activity in Brazil and Eastern Europe of late. One step at a time...
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Archived Dialogues
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Euro-Crisis: What It Means for High-Tech Firms Join EBN Editor in Chief Bolaji Ojo and Contributing Editor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday, July 12, at 10:00 a.m. EDT for a Live Chat on high-tech and Europe's economic difficulties.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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