Demand for high performance devices (mobile) with relative to: 1 - Low power consumption 2 - Higher memory capacity 3 - Speed ( frequency clocks at GHz/THz) are the major factors. And we need to blame market for that.
I have heard some stories about these events in the early 2000, a decade is gone and if you google just for a bit some keys as "trading derivates", the engine search provides several reports from auditors related to what happened. Then once again, the sector is impacted by structural problems, who knows if exists a real will to solve them.
mfb: The DRAM market is exactly like oil. In fact, ENRON at one point considered entering the DRAM market because of that similarity. That scared the pants off of the online trading sites that had been springing up during the dotcom boom. It wasn't too long after that ENRON fell apart--but at least you couldn't blame DRAM for that!
The memory market is so much depend on all kinds of electronic products made in the over the world. So any major problem with certain class of products would hamper the sales of DRAM. At the same time DRAM is more like a commodity item these days just lika diode/mosfet. There is not much innovation or any new features are added to these products.
"...The market suffers from too many structural problems..."
I am fully aligned; in my eyes, one of the problems is related to a real alternative, in terms of material, for producing DRAM in allowing savings and reaction to up & down market. Despite several years spent in DRAM light-speed replacement, producers are still away for evolving components towards that trend. It seems like green for oil; some good steps have been done, of course, but when will be available a full green-engine for cars?
You're probably right, but I think there is hope based on the fact that the industry seems to be maturing. I don't think we will see any new entrants - the cost barrier for a new state of the art fab, or even adding leading edge capacity is high. So we will see even more consolidation of the few real players left. After Samsung, Hynix, and now Micron the rest of the industry combined doesn't have much market share. And I think that DRAM demand is more predictable than in the past since PCs are also a muturing industry.
Bolaji: DRAM is a product that always seems to be in oversupply or undersupply. You outline most of the reasons for that. You'd think that after enough boom and bust cycles, DRAM makers would move toward some kind of self-regulation (although that may border on anti-trust--not sure.) At any rate, I think it will happen exactly as you and IHS predict: the relief will be short lived and there will be no actual progress made on moving toward a more rational response to demand.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.