@WaleB: good point Wale, I am convinced that a sort of case study could really help, in a positive sense, people, investors and companies, in avoiding any " bubble impact", while stock market would like to launch a given start-up or firm; coming back to FB, maybe it should be better to approach the study by a timeframe longer (i.e. a couple of quarters), for considering preliminary results.
@tech4people: fantastic ! The first one approach is maybe more professional, but the second is really attactive, at least speaking for my self. Personally, I am absolutely in line with what have you suggested and I fill great, your way ( "what the market is ready to pay") for summarizing a concept with behind seveal complex factors. Very good. Thx.
There are two ways to look at any Stock(including Facebook).
One is the Benjamin Graham school of Value Investing where you look at things like Cash on the Balance Sheet,Dividend Payouts,How fast the company is Growing,PE ratios and the immortal Concept of Margin of Safety.
Based on those metrics I would'nt value FB at more than $10-$12/share.
However,since FB does'nt pay Dividends,I would rather wait till I see a steady stream of Annual Dividends from FB before I consider investing in FB.
If this price scares you,The really hard-core practicioners of Value Investing put FB at not more than $7.50/share!!!
The second way is to look at what the market is ready to pay for the Stock.
Right now FB is still falling so we need to wait for it to stabilize for atleast a month before investing in the stock.
The market at the end of the day is the Judge Jury and executioner of any Idea.And right now the Market is still giving a massive Thumbs Down to FB Stock.
Now there is another way of looking at this Whole issue.Do you feel the problems which caused the crash of 2008;were a One-off? Have Governments done anything to reduce the risk of a similar Synchronized Global Blow-up once again in the Near Future?
The following two presentations straightaway argue that Governments have'nt done anything to prevent a repeat of those problems.
So the chances of a repeat of 2008 are very-very High.
If they do happen,then the NASDAQ will very well end up very close to 1500 levels;that's a 45% Drop from where we are today.
In that sceanario;Do you think FB will stay where it is today(close to $25/share)?
I don't think so.If we get such a crash once again then FB is going to end up very close to $7-$10/share.
Anyways,the moral of the story is Stay away from FB for now.
But do read both presentations.The Material is fantastic!!!
As for looking at the Daily gyrations of the stock;I don't care(and neither should anyone else who is serious about long-term investing).
What only matters is the long-term direction and right now that direction is Down.There is no doubt that the IPO was heavily over-priced and now that everyone is getting super dissapointed they keep dumping and exiting the stock.
Lets get a bottom in first.Then we can see what the market percieves as Fair Value for FB stock.
@tech4people: many thanks, interesting analysis; how we could explain the up&down of Facebook? What was the real value of the company in terms of stock? Is it the current or the that one used at first stock market launch?
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.