@Barbara: Labour force has very well understood situation and behaved in debonair way. Now it is turn for middle and higher management to compromise. With this US will become very competative and many more job will come back to US.
@Barry--thanks for pointing that out. The report does mention the BRIC nations and says the following:
"Between 1990 and 2010, the nominal value of global exports of manufactured goods more than quadrupled. When adjusted for inflation, this equates to a nearly tripling of value and a CAGR of 5.5%. To put this into perspective, during the same period, the combined GDP of North America, Europe, Japan and the BRIC countries grew at a CAGR of 3.0%, resulting in real GDP gorwth of 80%. China has been the biggest beneficiary of these developments. Between 1990 and 2010, its shre in global manufacturing exports grew from 1.8% to 14.4%."
I don't think pulling out of BRIC is going to happen large-scale: many manufacturers want to sell into those markets as well as export from them. I think the report indicates that there will be some rationalization of what makes sense to manufacture closer to home markets.
On your last point, I agree: manufacturing is so automated that you won't have a big surge in jobs. However, the perception in the US is that if manufacturing returns, so will job growth.
I wonder if Western countries will ever accept paying 20% more for goods for the greater good of their local communities and jobs. I understand why companies keep chasing low cost manf locations but is it truly the long term solution?
I do not agree. When people unfortunately lost jobs, they had reality check and now are ready to work at much lower rate. This is true for everyone - unskilled labour to highly intellectual engineer or scientist.
Unfortunately the analysis leaves out an important fact. It becomes highly more unlikely you will pull out of China or SE Asia and return to the U.S. if you are selling to those countries. And for the first time, the combined GDP of BRIC countries has exceeded those of developed countries. So where does the future lie in terms of increasing sales and being close to your market?
Also, I don't see employment being such a large beneficiary of any increased manufacturing done in the U.S.- at least not as much as it used to be. There's too much automation now. Instead, support industries to manufacturing, i.e. engineering, specialized training, knowledge-base industries, are the ones that will be more directly affected. The key, therefore is manufacturing the items that will enhance our technological edge- not the low-laying fruit which carries little overall advantage for us.
You are right. In addition to that, after the BRICS ---- according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management department, the next emerging group of countries called next 11 (N-11) – Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam
" I believe the US workforce has priced itself out of most low-skilled manufacturing jobs."
I believe so too Barbara. And I think that low-skilled workers can benefit from the changes in the demand for skills if they receive additional training.
Chipmonk--I can actually see people in the US supporting outsourcing to Vietnam. Regardless of the reasoning at the time, the US inflicted a lot of damage on that nation during the war. Seeing businesses (rather than government) adding to its economic growth would be heartening.
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Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
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Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.
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