LED hasn't achieved popularity in general lighting application; but it is expected more than 50% lamp holders by 2018 will access LED, and over 80% of lamps in the market are LED lamp. However, the market scale of currently pretreatment LED production equipments is smaller than two years ago. Comparing with $1.9 billion in 2010 and $1.7 billion in 2011, 2012 saw scale of only $600 million. Enterprises will invest in the second half of 2013; by 2014, LED production equipment industry will achieve significant growth, but this will be the last large-scale investment for LED industry. Later, market size will continuously shrink, becoming a market basically relying on the redemption demand.
It is projected by 2018 LED will increase the area of semiconductor materials for four times from 2012; revenue also will reach a peak of $17 billion. Sales, despite the peak in 2012 or so, will gradually reduce due to the following two factors. First, because of substantial increase in the amount of light emitted by a single LED, so the quantity of needed LED will decrease. Second, comparing with current technology, LED product largely extends life, so there is no need for replacing one or two light bulbs in one year, 10-year service life is available, which will lead to the great and permanent deceleration to LED market.
There was over-investment before 2011.
In the next five years, the production of the LED will continue to expand, then, why the production equipment market has already peaked and rebound? This is because large-scale over-investment occurs in 2010 and 2011, the major reason of which lies in that Chinese government subsidies the MOCVD equipment, enterprises, in order to ensure market position, has to strive to toll cash. As of 2010, only several Chinese enterprises have stepped into LED production equipment area, but now there see a growth of 70. In addition, most enterprises are short-lived, and those survived companies will not purchase new equipments, but achieving production capacity increase through acquiring failed enterprises.
When buying production equipment, in order to decline cost of ownership（COO）, on one hand, part of enterprises invest those reliable and uniform high-performance equipment. On the other hand, some enterprises plan to reduce the amount of investment in equipment, minimize the manufacturing cost through purchasing the cheapest device. But now, most companies (including the vast majority of Chinese enterprises) have begun to opt for the former one.
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.