But with the dramatic decline of price, the penetration of smartphone is rapidly expanding. Maybe excluding some poor regions, other regions can afford a smartphone. It is reported that a smartphone watch is under development, and seems can replace smartphone.
Will handset market wither like a flower? Will smartphone step on the same road as PC? Can you image such picture of mobile phone being replaced by something new just as the Tablet PC superseding traditional PC? When it comes to these questions, anyone, whether inside or outside the industry, would shake his head, and say "no".
Indeed, undoubtedly, mobile devices, notably smartphoe and Tablet PC, are the "darling" of market. In 2012, almost all industries fell on downturn; especially the previous pride of semiconductor industry suffered the first decline of 6.4% since 2011, resulting in the entire semiconductor industry dropped by 2.7%. But smartphone and Tablet PC saw inverse growth, shoring up and alleviating the weakness of the semiconductor segment with an increase of 45% and 98%, reaching 796 million and 119 million units, respectively.
Given to the huge and brightening market prospect, more and more manufacturers including smartphone makers or related parts manufacturers flock into this segment. However, according to Mirae Asset Research, global mobile phone will come into the period of downturn after 2015 with the penetration rate of worldwide smartphone reaching 51%. Mirae Asset Research believes: driven by 3G/LTE and emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil and Russia, global handset will continue to increase. But with the increasingly serious homogenization for mobile phone as well as the dramatically falling of prices, global market will see large-scale occupancy for mobile phone, for instance, penetration rate of mobile phone in China will arrive at 105% by the end of 2014. In addition, the introduction of 5G service is in 2020, as such global mobile phone market will face a slowdown in development.
With the downturn of handset market in 2015, the main demand of mobile phone will rely on content and software, just as the PC market. Besides, the profit margin will further expand. As of 2012, Samsung and Apple, these two smartphone giants, took up almost 98% profits; and by 2015, their market shares will continue to increase, resulting in the fiercer competition.
I wonder, based on the above prediction, what will prompt the semiconductor market by 2015, if the smartphone segment, an emerging and strong driving force shows malaise? Will other smartphone-like devices lift another wave? 2013 has come, that is to say there is only two years or at most three years left. What will be the selling points, OLED display, bendable feature, larger size (exceeding 6-inch) or more intelligent characteristics?
EBN Dialogue enables and encourages you to participate in live chats with notable leaders and luminaries. Not only editors and journalists, but the entire EBN community is able to comment and ask questions. Listed below are upcoming and archived chats.
Thailand Stages a Comeback Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Microsoft Surface: Potential Winners & Losers What are the implications for the electronics industry supply chain of Microsoft Corp.'s decision to launch its own tablet PC? Join industry veteran and EE Times' systems and OEM expert Rick Merritt on Tuesday, July 3, at 12:00 pm EDT for a Live Chat on this subject.
Join EBN contributor Jennifer Baljko on Thursday August 23, 2012, at 11:00 a.m. EST for a live chat on how electronic manufacturers in Thailand have shored up their supply chain to reduce the impact of future natural disasters.
Peter Drucker famously said "Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." Yet in the razor's-edge world of electronics—with a lean supply chain and just-in-time demands—the need to know the future is vital.
While no one really can accurately predict the future, we can take guidance from another Drucker saying which is the best way to predict the future is to create it.
You've heard the saying "the No. 1 supply chain risk is your people." That hasn't always been the case. But today's complex global supply chain requires a new type of multitalented employee. It's one who understands, finance, marketing, economics, is savvy with technology, graceful with relationships and can think analytically.
Where are these people? Are universities properly preparing the next generation supply chain professionals? How do train your existing workforce for these new, demanding positions?
Brian Fuller, editor-in-chief of EBN, will lead a 60-minute Avnet Velocity panel discussion that will ask and answer these and other questions swirling around today's supply-chain talent challenges.