There will be big layoffs in 2016. OK, that’s an easy one. Avago has a slash-and-burn reputation for how it handled LSI and other acquisitions. I predict the new Broadcom will be a leaner, meaner machine.
Avago/Broadcom was just one of the many, many M&A deals of 2015 that will offer Wall Street a burnt sacrifice of “synergies” in the coming year in the pursuit of bigger profits. Expect an ongoing body count as the electronics industry settles into its golden years single-digit growth.
I see no next big thing in my crystal ball. That’s a bit scary.
I started covering this industry when the 80386 was a rocket rising out of Santa Clara in the late 1980’s. From those days until now there has always been a single, definable engine of growth — the desktop PC, the notebook, the smartphone, the tablet. All of those big markets will carry on, but none will bring much growth in the coming year.
Some people will claim virtual and augmented reality will be the next big thing in the run up to the debut of a handful of major platforms in the spring. But by fall the heat will start to fade as consumers, chilled by their high price tags and underwhelming performance, give a pass on them as gifts for Xmas 2016.
So as all eyes increasingly turn to the Internet of Things, I predict we will exit next year with a new skepticism about IoT. Common wisdom will catch up with the e-intelligensia in realizing IoT is not the next big thing. It is 27 new things and a bunch of old things we used to call embedded, all blended together into a marketing smoothie that’s easy to talk about and hard to take to the bank.
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