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Not All Doom & Gloom

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Mr. Roques
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
Mr. Roques   12/8/2011 10:57:37 AM
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Well, they could identify which products are critical in their supply chain and they must have some sort of backup plan. 

Though, I don't think there's a wide enough backup plan that accounts for natural disasters.

Mr. Roques
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
Mr. Roques   12/8/2011 9:38:37 AM
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Well, I think the EU is not stable enough and I don't think its sustainable. I doubt that Germany wants to continually carry Italy and Greece on its shoulder.

Regarding Asian disasters, there's no way around it. Until another country in another region can overtake that market, which is not going to happen in the next 5-10 years.

Barbara Jorgensen
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Not all doom and gloom
Barbara Jorgensen   10/14/2011 10:06:40 AM
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Readers--thanks for bringing up the Occupy Wall Street movement and corporations sitting on cash. These are two important factors in the big picture, which I agree continues to look grim. Uncertainty is the 800-lb gorilla in the room and it will continue to make companies cautious. I was able to re-read Ann Young's blog on uncertainty yesterday, and was happy to find that someone--McKinsey & Co. -- is trying to figure out how to apply uncertainty to forecasting. I'll admit it get a little high-level for me, but at least someone is trying to account for the effect all of this has on our day to day business.

On the not-so-good news side, the WSJ reported CEO salaries went up again this year--Occupy doesn't seem to be having the desired effect

eemom
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
eemom   10/14/2011 8:50:08 AM
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@jbond - I do believe you are right, although the companies being overcautious in investment and hiring is feeding into slower economic recovery.  If the unemployment rate is high, people will be too afraid to go out and make luxury purchases which in turn causes week demand for the product.  I know this is only part of the problem, but the solution has to start somewhere.

jbond
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
jbond   10/14/2011 7:10:15 AM
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@eemom, I don't think the hoarding of cash by these larger companies is going to change much. I don't feel the companies are going to go out and use this money to hire or invest in their own company unless they see the global economy taking an upswing instead of a downturn. Even if some of these cash hoarding companies have to reduce their forecasts, they still have stockpiles of cash to show their board and investors that they are soluble.

jbond
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
jbond   10/14/2011 7:07:12 AM
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@Jacob, yes it's true that you can't always have every member of the EU in stable positions, but in light of the financial collapses that have been going on over the last few years, there is concern on whether the EU will stay together. Why should some of the richer countries suffer when their poorer members aren't trying to solve the crisis rather than stay afloat? What is Spain and Greece, to name a few, actually doing to try and turn things around other than asking for a bailout?

This could also be applied to the U.S. and its debt crisis. None of that has been solved, all Congress did was push the time line back further at a reduction in credit rating.

 

Jacob
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
Jacob   10/14/2011 6:26:56 AM
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Eemom, the recent mass movement in Manhattan ”Occupy Wall Street" is a normal reaction from common peoples. This can be happens, when minority portion accumulating more wealth and the opposite in other side. As per the study 60% of US wealth is accumulated in 1% of the population. I agree that its common in other countries also. Any way the agitation is started in US and it may be slowly spread over other countries.

Jacob
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
Jacob   10/14/2011 6:16:07 AM
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“Right know you have the richer EU Countries trying to salvage the problem countries” Jbon, I won’t think European countries can always be in economic stability, the recent news saying the crisis is carving other EU countries slowly.

eemom
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
eemom   10/13/2011 10:52:25 AM
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@jbond and @jacob

I reluctantly agree with your assessment for a global economic crisis.  It is really scary to think about but given all the facts, hard to avoid.  What really concerns me is that the US is in a political campaigning state and everyone is doing what they need to be elected vs. doing what is need for the country.  Unfortunately, this will go on for a long time until the next president is in office.  What about all the cash larger companies are hoarding?  How will that come into play as the economic situation worsens?

tirlapur
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Re: It's Not THAT Bad!
tirlapur   10/13/2011 8:47:37 AM
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The supply chain running rather flat right now is actually a bright spot considering what’s going on around the world.

@jbond, I totally agree with you. We should be happy that supplya chain is "down to flat" and not "down and out". Supply chain is showing lot of resilience this time around. Lets hope things doesnt deteriorate from here.

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