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Risks Persist One Year After Japan Tsunami

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pocharle
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Re: Part of the strategy
pocharle   5/12/2012 10:34:42 AM
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Agreed. Impending doom is always a good motivator.

Ariella
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Re: Part of the strategy
Ariella   5/6/2012 6:09:14 PM
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@pocharle Yes, that's exactly it. We assume that th longer something has withstood any problems, the more assured we can be that it will remain so when the opposite is the case.

pocharle
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Re: Part of the strategy
pocharle   5/6/2012 4:18:50 PM
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Ariella,

Referring the classic lit I see, you get points for that!

But this reminds me of the hard drive property MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure). The longer rhe drive spins, the closer you get to its failure. Most people assume it will never fail but each day brings you closer to the FAIL (and the annoying clicking noises).

Ariella
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Re: Part of the strategy
Ariella   4/22/2012 6:37:43 PM
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@pocharles That is true. The problem is that they only plan for likely risks, the type they have already dealt with, and not those that seem unlikely. It is what George Eliot identified in Chapter 5 of  Silas Marner over a century before Nassim Nicholas Taleb came out with his arguments for The Black Swan:

 The lapse of time during which a given event has not happened, is, in this logic of habit, constantly alleged as a reason why the event should never happen, even when the lapse of time is precisely the added condition which makes the event imminent. A man will tell you that he has worked in a mine for forty years unhurt by an accident as a reason why he should apprehend no danger, though the roof is beginning to sink ...

pocharle
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Supply Network Guru
Re: Part of the strategy
pocharle   4/22/2012 5:14:04 PM
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flyingscot,

I have seen and heard that line many times. Now I understand that it is mostly just lip service by most organizations. People talk about planning for the worst but don't actually do it because the worst usually doesn't happen. They plan for mini-disasters with backups and mobile workforces but NOT the big bang that can put you out of business for a long time.

Anne
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Stock Keeper
Re: Part of the strategy
Anne   4/21/2012 7:39:22 AM
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Thanks to Avnet, this information can help companies supply chain during natural disasters.

bolaji.ojo
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Blogger
Re: Fix it and forget it
bolaji.ojo   4/11/2012 6:55:00 AM
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This is an industrywide problem but which most would rather not collaborate to solve. It comes down to dollars and cents at the individual companies and unless a firm experiences the supply constraints attendant upon a natural disaster, it's more likely they'll keep their focus on more immediate challenges.

Today, another earthquake off Indonesia has prompted countries to warn coastal towns of the possibility of a tsunami. Like Gerry said, these incidents don't provide explicit warnings. They just strike and kill and devastate infrastructural systems. (See: Indonesia Aceh quake triggers Indian Ocean tsunami alert.)

Jacob
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Supply Network Guru
Re: Part of the strategy
Jacob   4/11/2012 2:16:40 AM
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Gerry, an uninterrupted supply chain is necessary for the flow of goods from manufacturer to the assembling units. We had seen that this had been disturbed by last year Japanese tsunami, Taiwan’s floods etc. in such a scenario, I think diversified supply across the globe can ensure the supply through alternate channels, in case of any disaster. I think the information from Avnet’s depository can help the companies to know about the alternate channels, availability, source etc

FLYINGSCOT
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Supply Network Guru
Part of the strategy
FLYINGSCOT   4/10/2012 5:58:46 AM
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I can understand why some companies might let things slip during the good times.  To counter this it is important companies make disaster recovery planning part of their on going strategy that is managed and audited.

Barbara Jorgensen
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Blogger
Fix it and forget it
Barbara Jorgensen   4/9/2012 2:07:27 PM
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Gerry--I find myself dealing with whatever issue is in front of me and no matter how dramatic (or traumatic) it is, once things are back on track I am on to the next crisis. It is no surprise that businesses and organizations make the same mistake. Obviously, the nation of Japan cannot and will not forget the lessons of last year, but it is clear that parts of the world have moved on. Great advice on reflecting on the crisis, and kudos to companies such as Avnet that are keeping their eye on the ball and advising partners to consider the risks.

There are a number of indications that businesses are diversifying...there has been EMS activity in Brazil and Eastern Europe of late. One step at a time...



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