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Underestimating Uncertainty

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michellepattison
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Stock Keeper
Re: Unknown Unknowns
michellepattison   4/11/2018 3:33:08 AM
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I've read all your information that you shares in your article and I really love it. Thank you for sharing this post. I appreciate it.

Mr. Roques
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Supply Network Guru
Re: Unknown Unknowns
Mr. Roques   12/1/2011 10:35:50 AM
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True, it has MANY challenges but I think it would help with 1) IP issues, 2) coordination issues.

Kunmi
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Re: Unknown Unknowns
Kunmi   10/30/2011 11:15:34 PM
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It is not possible because at times a company may have the idea of possible challenges but it may not be aware of its magnitude. This is the reason where the fear of the unknown may pose a great challenge

Anna young
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Re: Unknown Unknowns
Anna young   10/16/2011 8:30:13 AM
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@eemom, absolutely. You have in a nutshell said it all. "Today, knowing that the global health of the economy is at risk, companies would be wise to be overly conservative and not overestimate their sales".

eemom
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Re: Unknown Unknowns
eemom   10/13/2011 11:28:27 AM
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The Electronics Industry is not alone in faulty forecasts.  I can't think of a system where forecasting is accurate when the future is shaky at best.  Looking to the future and not knowing what lurks, makes it impossible to predict.  Today, knowing that the global health of the economy is at risk, companies would be wise to be overly conservative and not overestimate their sales. 

Hawk
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Re: Unknown Unknowns
Hawk   10/13/2011 10:01:40 AM
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@Mr. Roques, I believe the vertical manufacturing model has been tried by the industry and while it was not discredited, it is no longer the preferred system because of the inherent challenges. I am not convinced it will help eliminate the uncertainties in the system.

mfbertozzi
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Re: Caution
mfbertozzi   10/13/2011 7:48:48 AM
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Anna, thanks for the editorial, it was very interesting. I also agree with your perspective, especially right now. Electronics world is not living its "bubble" period, and maybe just that age is one of the key for current instability of the market. I had yesterday a good meeting with a CTO from a mobile provider, he said something very simple and very useful for explaining the picture: "we need technology for people to use, anything else".

Anna young
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Re: Unknown Unknowns
Anna young   10/13/2011 6:38:38 AM
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@Hawk, Mckinsey report states and I agree that "When the future is truly uncertain, this approach is at best marginally helpful and at worst downright dangerous: underestimating uncertainty can lead to strategies that neither defend a company against the threats nor take advantage of the opportunities that higher levels of uncertainty provide". I say don't overestimate your sales forecasts. Caution is the key.

Mr. Roques
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Supply Network Guru
Re: Unknown Unknowns
Mr. Roques   10/12/2011 9:39:38 PM
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How about vertically integrating in order to have more control over the production process? That would allow them to have a faster adjustment period, in case the forecast changes.

bolaji.ojo
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Re: Unknown Unknowns
bolaji.ojo   10/12/2011 8:43:03 PM
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I don't believe uncertainties can be ever eliminated from a business environment. During a Live Chat on Wednesday Lindsley Ruth, a senior vice president with Future Electronics, noted that forecasting will always be a problem in the electronics industry. That's the nature of the market. What companies must do, Ruth said, is stay alert.

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