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Global Trade Management Conquers Emerging Markets

Emerging markets growth is imminent. “Global trade management will mature as a critical capability in managing growth in emerging markets,” according to research and recently released Predictions for 2014 by IDC Manufacturing Insight. Both manufacturers and their IT suppliers are looking at emerging global markets in Asia Pacific, South America, and the Middle East. This tendency has been a reoccurring theme in a variety of industry research papers that have been released recently.

Significant global change is about to happen in the global economy. Consequently, the global manufacturing sector will be searching for new opportunities, and supply chain management needs get ready for it.

Predicting expansion into emerging markets
In her article “Manufacturers See Emerging Markets as Ripe for E-Commerce Growth,” Heather Ashton, IDC Research Manager, clearly draws the attention to the increasing importance of manufacturers expanding into emerging markets and how their IT suppliers are supporting their initiatives. Once again, the importance of Third Platform technologies — big data, cloud, mobile, and social — is noted, which we have previously discussed here on EBN. (See: Building 3D Value Chains.)

Why emerging markets?
Earlier this year, the United Nations' Development Policy and Analysis Division published a report entitled “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014.” The report examines the prospect growth in developing countries as well as economies in transition. According to the report's global press release (available for download here):

Growth in Brazil has been hampered by weak external demand, volatility in international capital flows, and tightening monetary policy, but growth is expected to rebound to 3% in 2014. A slowdown in China has been stabilized and growth is expected to maintain at a pace of about 7.5% in the next few years. India experienced its lowest growth in two decades, along with large current account and government budget deficits plus high inflation, but growth is forecast to improve to above 5% in 2014. In The Russian Federation, growth weakened further in 2013 as industrial output and investment faltered, and is expected to recover modestly to 2.9% in 2014. Among developing regions, growth prospects in Africa remain relatively robust.

With the most significant expected growth in Brazil, China, and India as we can see below, the total world gross product is forecast to increase at a pace of 3.0 in 2014 and 3.3 in 2015.

Source: UN.org

Source: UN.org

Looking on the bright side, but with caution
Despite the positive predictions, it is important to keep in mind some possible risks and uncertainties, including the unwinding of quantitative easing that may cause global financial turmoil and threaten the recovery; vulnerability of the emerging economies to external shocks; and a still fragile banking system. Further complicating the scene is the real economy in the EU, debt-ceiling negotiations in the US, and geopolitical tensions in Western Asia, as the United Nations warns in the video below:

A truly expanding international trade management
For years we have been talking about globalization. However, how globalized can the manufacturing industry be if most of the time the industries are only looking at the US and Europe? With emerging technology that will help the rise of global trade management growth in key emerging markets, we can finally start talking about a truly global economy.

How do you see this predicted trend for 2014 and the years to come?

20 comments on “Global Trade Management Conquers Emerging Markets

  1. t.alex
    March 6, 2014

    I believe the countries in the list definitely have huge growth potential in 2014. However, each may have its own specific targetted segment. And which one of them will be the next key player in supply chain of electronics/components?

  2. Ariella
    March 6, 2014

    @t.alex China and India are far ahead in projected growth on the chart, but I see that Mexico is showing some pretty good numbers, too. 

  3. SP
    March 7, 2014

    Quite agree these markets have tremendous growth prospects. India has seen enormous growth in last five years when it comes to Foreign trade. Whether its Mc DOnalds or KFC or clothing lines, they have started targeting Indian markets. India and China will always in the growth list owing ot their high population. India may lag behind somewhat because of having democracy and extreme political uncertainty. I would say India has tremendous potential when it comes to Electronics trade management looking at the number of engineers being produced.

  4. Ariella
    March 7, 2014

    @SP what about sheer numbers in terms of overall population? Could that be a factor, as well?

  5. SP
    March 7, 2014

    @Ariella what is hseer no.?

  6. Susan Fourtané
    March 8, 2014

    SP, 

    “sheer numbers” means “by numbers alone”, or “great numbers”, as the example is talking about the overall population of some countries. Here, it's the combiation of the word “sheer” with the word “numbers” what gives the meaning. 

    In some other cases “sheer” can mean transparent. 🙂 You can see this word describing stockings, for example. 

    -Susan 

     

  7. SP
    March 8, 2014

    Thanks Susan for detailed explanation :-).. Yes Ariella agreed that sheer no. of overall population could be a factor too…

  8. _hm
    March 8, 2014

    @Susan: That is good news. How about other dimension of it – time. For how long will this love last – a decade?

     

  9. Susan Fourtané
    March 9, 2014

    SP, 

    You are welcome. 🙂 

    Do you think it could be a factor, too? 

    -Susan

  10. Susan Fourtané
    March 9, 2014

    _hm, 

    My crystal ball says it doesn't have precise answers to what could happen in such long period of time. 😀 

    What do you think? 

    -Susan 

  11. Susan Fourtané
    March 9, 2014

    Ariella, 

    “What about sheer numbers in terms of overall population? Could that be a factor, as well?”

    An interesting observation. It could be, but to what extent? 

    -Susan 

  12. Hailey Lynne McKeefry
    March 9, 2014

    Here's a by country charge about the semiconductor market that provides some interesting drill down into this topic:

    Jan14 gdp

  13. Hailey Lynne McKeefry
    March 9, 2014

    @Ariella, in my mind, population may be part of it, but so much of electronics is exported aorund the world, no matter where it is manufactured, so it mitigates that factor to an extent.

  14. Ariella
    March 9, 2014

    @Hailey true, the global economy makes things more complex.

  15. _hm
    March 9, 2014

    @Susan: I wish it to be for longer term – for ever. However, I will look with skeptism. May be 30% of conquerer will make roots permanent.

     

  16. Susan Fourtané
    March 10, 2014

    _hm, 

    Why with skepticism? Where do you think it will be stronger? 

    -Susan

  17. ahdand
    March 10, 2014

    @hm: Im not sure how permanent it will be with the current happenings but we can try to make its stay lengthy. By that it may look good as if its been there for some time. 

  18. Susan Fourtané
    March 19, 2014

    _hm, 

    Nothing exists forever. 🙂 

    -Susan

  19. t.alex
    September 29, 2014

    America, Japan and EU growth is no longer a case anymore. China, Idia, Brazil…etc have young population and they will grow stronger than ever. Africa has a lot of room to grow just need good direction and investors.

  20. Susan Fourtané
    September 29, 2014

    t.alex, 

    Yes, that's how the forecast growth goes toward 2015. 

    -Susan

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