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I even make predictions about the weather……Like the Scandinavian scientists, I'm forecasting a mini-Ice-Age for the next 45 years as the Sun enters a period of low activity!
As the flood of chatters slowly builds, tell us what factors you think are playing the biggest role in what will happen in the supply chain for the remainder of 2014.
We're due for a cool spell. It's intersting that the Sun has much more impact than any AGW effects – the IPCC model didn't even take the Sun into account until recently.
There are fundamental technical trends and market and logistic forces at work. Let me start with the electronics industry, and then broaden it out to cover other areas.
It was an oversight all right. It destroyed any real credibility matching the model to the real world, and so any predictions were more hype than science
That's a lot of interconnected topics. I am vry interested in the affect of whitebox chinese appliances on the market. Reduce demand for components for DIY type IT dpeartments?
Storage is likely shift from a high markup model with EMC, NetApp etc in dominacne to a mixed market with commodity pricing and new (Vhinese) suppliers keeping competition high.
Companies are starting to talk retail drives in their arrays…Nexenta and superMicro are examples.
This will migrate drive purchasing towards distribution and online outlets.
SSD is killing the enterprise hard drive market. This will adversely impact WD and Seagate, since they don't dominate the SSD space. The replacement rate of drives will be less than 1:1 for SSd over HDD, since much of today's HDD is there to provide multi-drive performance
Jim, doesn't tech present two challenges in the electronics supply chain. First there is the type of technology that is being shipped/sold, and then there is the core tech that suppliers and buyers use. Right?
Moving on to servers, the big technical issues are more compact modules. This means fewer components to sell. The motherboard will essentially become a CPU/memory module with just IO on the “motherboard.” See Hybrid Memory Cube.
Timeframe is still 2 or 3 years for it to be a serious product
Yes jimC…We are seeing a switch from traditional HDD to SSD, from DRAM to HMC, and a move to COTS from Legacy, bolstered by the cloud. All these change what people buy.
This also changes who they buy from. The vendor bases for the new technologies is not necessarily traditional suppliers.
Near-shoring is a bit of a dream still. Economically, it is on the edge of making sense, especial;y with robotics. However, expect China to push back, both at the corporate and the governement level.
Even so, the large Chinese ODMs are considering globalisation and this means a retail and manufacturing presence in the US makes sense.
Analytics via Big Data will really change reatiling. You can already see that in the speed that targwetted ads appear on your browser after visiting some sites.
JimO, I read that China is making a big push to increase domestic component manufacturing. If so, how would that impact the global market for components?
tech4people – the cloud has taken away fear of going direct to the suppliers and now servers and storage are migrating towards cloud-based models…COTS, high-volume, no frills and direct from manufacturers
As I said earlier, China is pushing back against globalisation of their electronics manufacturing. Having local, cheap components is one way to increase the lock
As far as China pushing back-I was just reading a report saying that China's currency might be over-valued today by as much as 20%(thanks to their failed economy-All the Communist Party Members have taken sizeable sums of Cash out of China and invested in America,Canada ,Australia,New Zealand and UK today).
If that does cause an Implosion of the Chinese Economy [Thanks to all those failing Infrastructure and Construction projects in the country];their currency could collapse bigtime-20% easy .
@JimO: brick-and-mortar retailers will only survive if they provide a seamless online/physical experience for customers and change the way they do business–specifically level of customer service and approach to store design.
@Jim-For brick and mortar to really,really survive they have to provide value and a great customer experience.I can see that happening if they move closer to Customers like say in NYC,etc.
@tech4people, a collapse of the Chinese economy would be one of those tsunami-like factors that I doubt many electronics suppliers or purchasers are planning for.
tech4people…China has two problems. They use artificaial barriers to remain competitive, and if they were taken away that could hurt their position. More seriously is that they have an incredible bubble in real estate. It's almost of the class of the Dutch poppy bubble of a couple of centuries back. It accounts for empty new cities and such, and a lot of entities are over-extended.
China is trying to work out a soft landin, but it's a monster. I think they are doing a lot of the right things, though.
@Rodney-Then those Purchasers are beyond foolish.Look what happened when Russia suddenly decided to Ban all American and European Food Imports.
The Europeans start ranting and raving like madmen.They had no contingency plans in place in losing a major-major market like Russia[over 50 Billion Dollars in Annual Food Imports from EU].
When it was the Europeans (aided on by America) that started the Sanctions mess in the first place.
Rodney…B&M need to deliver more than lower prices than online to win…that's not economic.
The service issue suggests they will become more boutique over time. It's worth noting that online is recognising that challenge and is adding features like high-tech software to allow clothing to be modelled on the browser in a synthetic image. #d printing and smarter logistics will help online to keep pressure on.
tech4people…sanctions are the least dangerous option to pressure Russia to stop playing with Ukraine. The next alternative almost certainly was accelqerated NATO membership or a guarantee of border integrity by NATO…that caused a problem in September 1939
@Jim-Highly accurate.America started this mess in the first place,its about time the Europeans jumped ship.
Last I heard a lot of the Countries who were initially backing the Russian Sanctions are now getting cold feet thanks to losses and Layoffs they are currently facing.
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A free online environment where users can create, edit, and share electrical schematics, or convert between popular file formats like Eagle, Altium, and OrCAD.
Find the IoT board you’ve been searching for using this interactive solution space to help you visualize the product selection process and showcase important trade-off decisions.
Transform your product pages with embeddable schematic, simulation, and 3D content modules while providing interactive user experiences for your customers.
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SiliconExpert provides engineers with the data and insight they need to remove risk from the supply chain.
Transim powers many of the tools engineers use every day on manufacturers' websites and can develop solutions for any company.
Hi all
Hope to attend this interesting section
Another 90 minutes to go for this interesting section to start
Another 90 minutes to go for this interesting section to start
Welcome Jacob, and I hope you can join us!
Five minutes until we are live with Jim O'Reilly!
Hello Rodney, everyone
Howdy Jim, and welcome.
Seems like a slow start today. Late summer doldrums I bet. (Not that I too would rather be fishing…)
I even make predictions about the weather……Like the Scandinavian scientists, I'm forecasting a mini-Ice-Age for the next 45 years as the Sun enters a period of low activity!
Well, that's no fun. However, it might offset global warming, so we've go that going for us.
As the flood of chatters slowly builds, tell us what factors you think are playing the biggest role in what will happen in the supply chain for the remainder of 2014.
We're due for a cool spell. It's intersting that the Sun has much more impact than any AGW effects – the IPCC model didn't even take the Sun into account until recently.
There are fundamental technical trends and market and logistic forces at work. Let me start with the electronics industry, and then broaden it out to cover other areas.
Seriously? That seems like a big oversight. It's not like the sun drives all the weather and climate or anything.
Thechniacl trends re changing electronics considerably. This to me is a period of fast change in a lot of basic areas.
Let's start with Storage:
SSD, replacing enterprise HDD
Buy your own drive storage appliances
Whitebox appliances from China
3D flash
Greedings all, sorry I'm late!
It was an oversight all right. It destroyed any real credibility matching the model to the real world, and so any predictions were more hype than science
That's a lot of interconnected topics. I am vry interested in the affect of whitebox chinese appliances on the market. Reduce demand for components for DIY type IT dpeartments?
Storage is likely shift from a high markup model with EMC, NetApp etc in dominacne to a mixed market with commodity pricing and new (Vhinese) suppliers keeping competition high.
Welcome snunyc, and just in time!
Good afternoon everyone
Welcome JimC.
Hello Jim. What do you see as the big logistics trends in the ever change landscape of high tech?
Welcome Ken.
Thanks Rodney. Hi JimC, Hi Jim O'R.
@Ken: You stole my question! 🙂
Great minds, snunyc…
Companies are starting to talk retail drives in their arrays…Nexenta and superMicro are examples.
This will migrate drive purchasing towards distribution and online outlets.
SSD is killing the enterprise hard drive market. This will adversely impact WD and Seagate, since they don't dominate the SSD space. The replacement rate of drives will be less than 1:1 for SSd over HDD, since much of today's HDD is there to provide multi-drive performance
Jim, doesn't tech present two challenges in the electronics supply chain. First there is the type of technology that is being shipped/sold, and then there is the core tech that suppliers and buyers use. Right?
Moving on to servers, the big technical issues are more compact modules. This means fewer components to sell. The motherboard will essentially become a CPU/memory module with just IO on the “motherboard.” See Hybrid Memory Cube.
Timeframe is still 2 or 3 years for it to be a serious product
Any thoughts on…. is near-shoring really happening in high-tech logistics supply chains? or is it just hype?
Yes jimC…We are seeing a switch from traditional HDD to SSD, from DRAM to HMC, and a move to COTS from Legacy, bolstered by the cloud. All these change what people buy.
This also changes who they buy from. The vendor bases for the new technologies is not necessarily traditional suppliers.
How are high-tech logistics supply chains using big data and predictive analytics to improve their own operaitonal efficiency?
Sorry I am slightly late folks! Got the invite very-very late!!
@snunyc-Predictive Analytics was always a very-very big part of Supply Chain Logistics.Big Data is just starting to enter the picture.
No worries tech4people, welcome!
@Jim-Cloud has definitely changed folks perception of what works and what does'nt in Technology.No doubts about that.
Near-shoring is a bit of a dream still. Economically, it is on the edge of making sense, especial;y with robotics. However, expect China to push back, both at the corporate and the governement level.
Even so, the large Chinese ODMs are considering globalisation and this means a retail and manufacturing presence in the US makes sense.
@Jim-Near-shoring? Its already happening in Energy Intensive Manufacturing sectors(thanks to the Shale Gas Boom in America).
@tech4people: Thanks. in what ways are you seeing Big Data being incorporated?
Analytics via Big Data will really change reatiling. You can already see that in the speed that targwetted ads appear on your browser after visiting some sites.
JimO, I read that China is making a big push to increase domestic component manufacturing. If so, how would that impact the global market for components?
tech4people – the cloud has taken away fear of going direct to the suppliers and now servers and storage are migrating towards cloud-based models…COTS, high-volume, no frills and direct from manufacturers
As I said earlier, China is pushing back against globalisation of their electronics manufacturing. Having local, cheap components is one way to increase the lock
China is also looking to be self sufficient in the electronics industry, as a way to enter the big league of nations without too many dependencies
As far as China pushing back-I was just reading a report saying that China's currency might be over-valued today by as much as 20%(thanks to their failed economy-All the Communist Party Members have taken sizeable sums of Cash out of China and invested in America,Canada ,Australia,New Zealand and UK today).
If that does cause an Implosion of the Chinese Economy [Thanks to all those failing Infrastructure and Construction projects in the country];their currency could collapse bigtime-20% easy .
What happens then?Will America also retaliate?
All of this online stuff is eating up bricks and mortar retailers…..Can they survive?
Hmm, which do you think will have the greater effect on the supply chain — more near shoring, or more local Chinese component manufacturing?
@JimO: brick-and-mortar retailers will only survive if they provide a seamless online/physical experience for customers and change the way they do business–specifically level of customer service and approach to store design.
@Jim-For brick and mortar to really,really survive they have to provide value and a great customer experience.I can see that happening if they move closer to Customers like say in NYC,etc.
@tech4people, a collapse of the Chinese economy would be one of those tsunami-like factors that I doubt many electronics suppliers or purchasers are planning for.
tech4people…China has two problems. They use artificaial barriers to remain competitive, and if they were taken away that could hurt their position. More seriously is that they have an incredible bubble in real estate. It's almost of the class of the Dutch poppy bubble of a couple of centuries back. It accounts for empty new cities and such, and a lot of entities are over-extended.
China is trying to work out a soft landin, but it's a monster. I think they are doing a lot of the right things, though.
@Rodney-Then those Purchasers are beyond foolish.Look what happened when Russia suddenly decided to Ban all American and European Food Imports.
The Europeans start ranting and raving like madmen.They had no contingency plans in place in losing a major-major market like Russia[over 50 Billion Dollars in Annual Food Imports from EU].
When it was the Europeans (aided on by America) that started the Sanctions mess in the first place.
Rodney…B&M need to deliver more than lower prices than online to win…that's not economic.
The service issue suggests they will become more boutique over time. It's worth noting that online is recognising that challenge and is adding features like high-tech software to allow clothing to be modelled on the browser in a synthetic image. #d printing and smarter logistics will help online to keep pressure on.
Looks like we are winding down right at the right time Jim. We have reached our 30 minutes. Any last points, or any last questions for Jim, folks?
Thanks Jim. Good session.
tech4people…sanctions are the least dangerous option to pressure Russia to stop playing with Ukraine. The next alternative almost certainly was accelqerated NATO membership or a guarantee of border integrity by NATO…that caused a problem in September 1939
Thanks everyone. now going to soak my fingers to cool them off!!!!
@Jim-Highly accurate.America started this mess in the first place,its about time the Europeans jumped ship.
Last I heard a lot of the Countries who were initially backing the Russian Sanctions are now getting cold feet thanks to losses and Layoffs they are currently facing.
LOL, thanks for burning them up for us Jim!
And have a great rest of the afternoon, everyone!
Has anyone else heard about the Advanced Core Operating System? Sounds ultra-cool!!!
Thanks everyone — great chat