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Live Chat 8/20: Supply Chain Trends to Watch for the Rest of 2014

64 comments on “Live Chat 8/20: Supply Chain Trends to Watch for the Rest of 2014

  1. Daniel
    August 20, 2014

    Hi all

  2. Daniel
    August 20, 2014

    Hope to attend this interesting section

  3. Daniel
    August 20, 2014

    Another 90 minutes to go for this interesting section to start

  4. Daniel
    August 20, 2014

    Another 90 minutes to go for this interesting section to start

  5. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Welcome Jacob, and I hope you can join us!

  6. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Five minutes until we are live with Jim O'Reilly!

  7. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Hello Rodney, everyone

  8. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Howdy Jim, and welcome.

  9. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Seems like a slow start today. Late summer doldrums I bet. (Not that I too would rather be fishing…)

  10. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    I even make predictions about the weather……Like the Scandinavian scientists, I'm forecasting a mini-Ice-Age for the next 45 years as the Sun enters a period of low activity!

     

  11. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Well, that's no fun. However, it might offset global warming, so we've go that going for us.

  12. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    As the flood of chatters slowly builds, tell us what factors you think are playing the biggest role in what will happen in the supply chain for the remainder of 2014.

  13. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    We're due for a cool spell. It's intersting that the Sun has much more impact than any AGW effects – the IPCC model didn't even take the Sun into account until recently.

  14. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    There are fundamental technical trends and market and logistic forces at work. Let me start with the electronics industry, and then broaden it out to cover other areas.

  15. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Seriously? That seems like a big oversight. It's not like the sun drives all the weather and climate or anything.

  16. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Thechniacl trends re changing electronics considerably. This to me is a period of fast change in a lot of basic areas.

    Let's start with Storage:

     

    SSD, replacing enterprise HDD

    Buy your own drive storage appliances

    Whitebox appliances from China

    3D flash

  17. Susan_Nunziata
    August 20, 2014

    Greedings all, sorry I'm late!

  18. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    It was an oversight all right. It destroyed any real credibility matching the model to the real world, and so any predictions were more hype than science

  19. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    That's a lot of interconnected topics. I am vry interested in the affect of whitebox chinese appliances on the market. Reduce demand for components for DIY type IT dpeartments?

  20. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Storage is likely shift from a high markup model with EMC, NetApp etc in dominacne to a mixed market with commodity pricing and new (Vhinese) suppliers keeping competition high.

     

  21. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Welcome snunyc, and just in time!

  22. Jamescon
    August 20, 2014

    Good afternoon everyone

  23. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Welcome JimC.

  24. Ken Rankin
    August 20, 2014

    Hello Jim.  What do you see as the big logistics trends in the ever change landscape of high tech?

  25. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Welcome Ken.

  26. Susan_Nunziata
    August 20, 2014

    Thanks Rodney. Hi JimC, Hi Jim O'R.

  27. Susan_Nunziata
    August 20, 2014

    @Ken: You stole my question! 🙂

  28. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Great minds, snunyc…

  29. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Companies are starting to talk retail drives in their arrays…Nexenta and superMicro are examples.

    This will migrate drive purchasing towards distribution and online outlets.

    SSD is killing the enterprise hard drive market. This will adversely impact WD and Seagate, since they don't dominate the SSD space. The replacement rate of drives will be less than 1:1 for SSd over HDD, since much of today's HDD is there to provide multi-drive performance

  30. Jamescon
    August 20, 2014

    Jim, doesn't tech present two challenges in the electronics supply chain. First there is the type of technology that is being shipped/sold, and then there is the core tech that suppliers and buyers use. Right?

  31. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Moving on to servers, the big technical issues are more compact modules. This means fewer components to sell. The motherboard will essentially become a CPU/memory module with just IO on the “motherboard.” See Hybrid Memory Cube.

    Timeframe is still 2 or 3 years for it to be a serious product

     

     

  32. Ken Rankin
    August 20, 2014

    Any thoughts on…. is near-shoring really happening in high-tech logistics supply chains? or is it just hype?

  33. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Yes jimC…We are seeing a switch from traditional HDD to SSD, from DRAM to HMC, and a move to COTS from Legacy, bolstered by the cloud. All these change what people buy.

    This also changes who they buy from. The vendor bases for the new technologies is not necessarily traditional suppliers.

     

  34. Susan_Nunziata
    August 20, 2014

    How are high-tech logistics supply chains using big data and predictive analytics to improve their own operaitonal efficiency?

  35. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    Sorry I am slightly late folks! Got the invite very-very late!!

  36. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    @snunyc-Predictive Analytics was always a very-very big part of Supply Chain Logistics.Big Data is just starting to enter the picture.

  37. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    No worries tech4people, welcome!

  38. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    @Jim-Cloud has definitely changed folks perception of what works and what does'nt in Technology.No doubts about that.

  39. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Near-shoring is a bit of a dream still. Economically, it is on the edge of making sense, especial;y with robotics. However, expect China to push back, both at the corporate and the governement level.

    Even so, the large Chinese ODMs are considering globalisation and this means a retail and manufacturing presence in the US makes sense.

  40. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    @Jim-Near-shoring? Its already happening in Energy Intensive Manufacturing sectors(thanks to the Shale Gas Boom in America).

     

  41. Susan_Nunziata
    August 20, 2014

    @tech4people: Thanks. in what ways are you seeing Big Data being incorporated?

  42. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Analytics via Big Data will really change reatiling. You can already see that in the speed that targwetted ads appear on your browser after visiting some sites.

  43. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    JimO, I read that China is making a big push to increase domestic component manufacturing. If so, how would that impact the global market for components?

  44. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    tech4people – the cloud has taken away fear of going direct to the suppliers and now servers and storage are migrating towards cloud-based models…COTS, high-volume, no frills and direct from  manufacturers

  45. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    As I said earlier, China is pushing back against globalisation of their electronics manufacturing. Having local, cheap components is one way to increase the lock

  46. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    China is also looking to be self sufficient in the electronics industry, as a way to enter the big league of nations without too many dependencies

  47. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    As far as China pushing back-I was just reading a report saying that China's currency might be over-valued today by as much as 20%(thanks to their failed economy-All the Communist Party Members have taken sizeable sums of Cash out of China and invested in America,Canada ,Australia,New Zealand and UK today).

    If that does cause an Implosion of the Chinese Economy [Thanks to all those failing Infrastructure and Construction projects in the country];their currency could collapse bigtime-20% easy .

    What happens then?Will America also retaliate?

  48. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    All of this online stuff is eating up bricks and mortar retailers…..Can they survive?

  49. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Hmm, which do you think will have the greater effect on the supply chain — more near shoring, or more local Chinese component manufacturing?

  50. Susan_Nunziata
    August 20, 2014

    @JimO: brick-and-mortar retailers will only survive if they provide a seamless online/physical experience for customers and change the way they do business–specifically level of customer service and approach to store design. 

  51. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    @Jim-For brick and mortar to really,really survive they have to provide value and a great customer experience.I can see that happening if they move closer to Customers like say in NYC,etc.

     

  52. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    @tech4people, a collapse of the Chinese economy would be one of those tsunami-like factors that I doubt many electronics suppliers or purchasers are planning for.

  53. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    tech4people…China has two problems. They use artificaial barriers to remain competitive, and if they were taken away that could hurt their position. More seriously is that they have an incredible bubble in real estate. It's almost of the class of the Dutch poppy bubble of a couple of centuries back. It accounts for empty new cities and such, and a lot of entities are over-extended.

    China is trying to work out a soft landin, but it's a monster. I think they are doing a lot of the right things, though.

  54. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    @Rodney-Then those Purchasers are beyond foolish.Look what happened when Russia suddenly decided to Ban all American and European Food Imports.

    The Europeans start ranting and raving like madmen.They had no contingency plans in place in losing a major-major market like Russia[over 50 Billion Dollars in Annual Food Imports from EU].

    When it was the Europeans (aided on by America) that started the Sanctions mess in the first place.

  55. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Rodney…B&M need to deliver more than lower prices than online to win…that's not economic.

    The service issue suggests they will become more boutique over time. It's worth noting that online is recognising that challenge and is adding features like high-tech software to allow clothing to be modelled on the browser in a synthetic image. #d printing and smarter logistics will help online to keep pressure on.

  56. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    Looks like we are winding down right at the right time Jim. We have reached our 30 minutes. Any last points, or any last questions for Jim, folks?

  57. Ken Rankin
    August 20, 2014

    Thanks Jim. Good session.

  58. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    tech4people…sanctions are the least dangerous option to pressure Russia to stop playing with Ukraine. The next alternative almost certainly was accelqerated NATO membership or a guarantee of border integrity by NATO…that caused a problem in September 1939

  59. JimOReilly
    August 20, 2014

    Thanks everyone. now going to soak my fingers to cool them off!!!!

  60. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    @Jim-Highly accurate.America started this mess in the first place,its about time the Europeans jumped ship.

    Last I heard a lot of the Countries who were initially backing the Russian Sanctions are now getting cold feet thanks to losses and Layoffs they are currently facing.

  61. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    LOL, thanks for burning them up for us Jim!

  62. Rodney Brown
    August 20, 2014

    And have a great rest of the afternoon, everyone!

  63. Ashu001
    August 20, 2014

    Has anyone else heard about the Advanced Core Operating System? Sounds ultra-cool!!!

  64. eortheain
    August 20, 2014

    Thanks everyone — great chat

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