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Physics, Not Economics, Will End Moore’s Law

Bob Colwell, Director of the Microsystems Technology Office (MTO) at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), recently made a compelling statement about the end of Moore’s Law: “When Moore's Law ends, it will be economics that stops it, not physics. Follow the money.”

If we move beyond Moore's Law, the progress of other industries that depend on semiconductor industry will also be slowed. The interrelation of the chip industry and this doubling of computer processing power has allowed for half a century of exponential growth. Colwell sees 7 nm as being the end of the road (although not all experts agree) and predicts that Moore's Law will hit its limits around 2020 or 2022. It should be noted that end of Moore's law at 7 nm happens because of its physical limits. The semiconductor industry is expecting to meet economic limits earlier than physical limits because of a transformation of the US economy from free market capitalism to monopoly capitalism.

As a result of monopoly capitalism, the consumer purchasing power of the majority in the economy has shrunk. There is a growing gap between the wages and the productivity of employees in the global economy, which has resulted into a loss of economic balance. When capitalism is reformed to a free market enterprise, and it works for all citizens in an economy, it results in an economic democracy.

In order to sustain the progress of semiconductor industry through the progress of Moore's Law, economic reforms become critical to allow semiconductor companies to justify the ever-increasing capital-intensive investments made to sustain the progress of Moore's law. Consider the features of mass capitalism that would help address the present economic limits of Moore's Law:

  1. Mass capitalism would ensure an economic and monetary policy in which there is no valueless hoarding of wealth by a few individuals and any valueless hoarding gets converted into valuable investments for sustaining the progress of Moore's law.
  2. It would ensure maximum utilization and rational distribution of all available resources in an economy.
  3. It would optimize the business of operation for the semiconductor industry in such a way that the potential of all employees would be properly utilized towards the progress of Moore's law.
  4. It would redesign corporate human resources policies in order to encourage optimum utilization of all employees' potential. However, organizations would also have to adjust properly to utilize that potential.
  5. It would also ensure that the process of utilizing employees' potential is not the same for all employees of the semiconductor industry. While it would encourage better methods of utilization to be continually developed, the process of utilization would be progressive in nature.

If mass capitalism comes to reality the result would be a robust growth of consumer purchasing power in an economy. By bringing back free markets, supply and demand would grow in proportion, thereby resulting in a balanced economic growth, low income taxes on individuals, higher investments, increased motivation for employees to work hard, and the growth of the overall economy. I believe that mass capitalism is the path forward for the US and global semiconductor industry in reaching the next level of innovation and financial success.

When these reforms become a reality, even if the future improvements are less from one process generation to another, the macroeconomic growth in the overall economy would be very high. Through such profound macroeconomic reforms the consumer purchasing power and hence the prosperity of overall economy would be very high. With a high economic demand, the demand for the latest and greatest electronic products will continue to grow.

Such a robust consumer demand would force semiconductor industry to make investments and manufacture products to meet the demand. In this way, mass capitalism envisions sustaining the progress of Moore's Law in order to overcome its economic limits caused by monopoly capitalism. These reforms would usher in the era of high prosperity and replace Colwell's hypothesis. If Moore's law comes to an end, it will be due to physics, not economics.

21 comments on “Physics, Not Economics, Will End Moore’s Law

  1. Daniel
    June 13, 2014

    “”When Moore's Law ends, it will be economics that stops it, not physics. Follow the money.””

    Apek, it can happen when everything get commercialized. ROI is important for all investments.

  2. apek
    June 13, 2014

    Mass Capitalism ensures high ROI…through a robust consumer demand

  3. apek
    June 13, 2014

    Eliminate trade and budget deficits and bring free market reforms so that wages catch up with productivity

  4. Daniel
    June 16, 2014

    “Mass Capitalism ensures high ROI…through a robust consumer demand”

    Apek, how to generate consumer demand is critical.

  5. Daniel
    June 16, 2014

    “What is the first thing you would do to convert from monopoly capitalism to mass capitalism?”

    Rich, good question. I think for that decisions have to be taken from government end.

  6. apek
    June 17, 2014

    You can increase consumer demand by establishing free markets

  7. apek
    June 17, 2014

    The solution I propose has minimal government intervention….free markets have no government intervention and no corporate monopoly

  8. Daniel
    June 18, 2014

    “You can increase consumer demand by establishing free markets”

    Apek, free markets are not at all affordable for any companies.

  9. Daniel
    June 18, 2014

    “The solution I propose has minimal government intervention….free markets have no government intervention and no corporate monopoly”

    Apek, for all business government is just like a silent listener and they limited themselves with the role of policy makers. They won't either interfere or byrooted.

  10. apek
    June 19, 2014

    Jacob….we'll..there is a way to achieve that and Free markets are mandatory for sustaining progress of economy. Free markets ensure wages catch up with productivity and through cooperation, collaboration and employee ownership it is possible to achieve that goal

  11. Daniel
    June 20, 2014

    “..we'll..there is a way to achieve that and Free markets are mandatory for sustaining progress of economy. Free markets ensure wages catch up with productivity and through cooperation, collaboration and employee ownership it is possible to achieve that goal”

    Apek, you may be right. I haven't had much exposure to that segment.

  12. apek
    June 27, 2014

    Jacob, Please read synopsis of my upcoming book, perhaps you might get some idea. You can view it here http://apekmulay.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Synopsis.pdf

  13. horacegurly
    June 30, 2014

    I was also looking for this. Thank you so much for sharing this link to us. May you keep on posting your valuable information. purchace twitter retweets at http://buytwitterfollower.org/ . 🙂

     

  14. apek
    June 30, 2014

    Thank You. You are welcome. Please look forward for my upcoming post on “what's next for semiconductor industry”

  15. Daniel
    July 1, 2014

    “Jacob, Please read synopsis of my upcoming book, perhaps you might get some idea. You can view it here http://apekmulay.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Synopsis.pdf

    Apek, thanks for the link.

  16. apek
    July 11, 2014

    You are welcome

  17. Daniel
    July 14, 2014

    Apek, all the best for your new release.

  18. apek
    July 14, 2014

    Thanks a bunch

  19. Daniel
    July 15, 2014

    Apek, when you are planning to publish your new book.

  20. Daniel
    July 15, 2014

    For me or Apek !!!

  21. Daniel
    July 17, 2014

     “I'm offering it at a popular price, so help yourself”

    Rich, LOL.

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